"
This is too bad--but maybe like the fellow who ran for governor, he, too, will come back to run again and win the next time!"
I assume you're referring to
Bobby Jindal, who ran unsuccessfully for Governor in Louisiana last year but recently won a seat in Congress representing Louisiana's 1st District, and won it easily I might add. This is one of the reasons I don't like Craig Romero, who supported the Democratic candidate Kathleen Blanco in that contest which disappointed me greatly. I really believe Bobby Jindal's gubernatorial candidacy was the best opportunity Louisiana has had to fix some
major problems -- and boy do we have them -- in a long time.
Somehow I don't see Tauzin winning that seat back, given the history of incumbency in Louisiana when looking at congressional seats. But the upcoming congressional session will put Melancon in the spotlight when it comes to some key issues President Bush will push for, especially tax reform, the one issue that may disappoint Louisiana voters if Melancon sides with the left wing of the Democratic Party on key votes. If this is to happen it could put his seat in play but I have got to believe Melancon is aware of this. So my final take is "not likely but maybe there will be an opening for Tauzin or someone else to exploit." We'll see.
I really believe the best chance for Republicans to take this seat back is for some other Republican candidate, neither Tauzin nor Romero, to make a run in 2006, which he or she would likely lose, and then run again in 2008 with name recognition district-wide and a Republican presidential candidate on the ballot to boost turnout. That turnout really is the key here in Louisiana. I mentioned in my original post that in Louisiana Republicans do much better when turnout numbers are up, something of a disconnect with the rest of the country, but a reality when you look at the numbers.
Take a look at the turnout numbers -- count total votes -- in the Nov. 2 General Primary and the Dec. 4 runoff in the 3rd congressional district:
U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District
All 573 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish |
| 25,783 |
10% |
Damon J. Baldone, D |
Defeated |
| 19,347 |
7% |
Charmaine Degruise Caccioppi, D |
Defeated |
| 10,350 |
4% |
Kevin D. Chiasson, R |
Defeated |
| 63,328 |
24% |
"Charlie" Melancon, D |
Runoff |
| 61,132 |
23% |
Craig Romero, R |
Defeated |
| 84,680 |
32% |
W.J. "Billy" Tauzin, III, R |
Runoff |
U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District
573 of 573 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish |
| 57,611 |
50% |
"Charlie" Melancon, D |
- |
| 57,042 |
50% |
W.J. "Billy" Tauzin, III, R |
- |
My quick calculation is that there were 264,620 votes cast in the Nov. 2 General Primary as opposed to 114,653 votes in the Dec. 4 runoff. And notice that Melancon got 5,717 fewer votes in the runoff compared to the fact that Tauzin got 27,638 fewer votes. Can you see how badly he blew this race? The three Republican candidates in the Nov. 2 General Primary had 59% of the total vote combined between them and Tauzin still couldn't put the race away. Arrrrgggggghhhhhhhhhh!
Forgive me.
In spite of the momentum that incumbency gives a politician, sea changes do occur. Dasshole was a perfect example of what can happen. He worked hard to make sure that no recount was done in the Thune/Johnson race in 2002 when there were less than 500 votes separating them. Two years later, he lost to the same opponent by ten times that number. I am, perhaps foolishly, optimistic that the general trends toward Republicans will effect future elections, even those like Tauzin's.
Given the general trendlines of black voter turnout and white reproductions rates (not to mention the continued movement left by the Democrats), the demographics of Louisiana could be changing in favor of the Republicans. Who knows--maybe Tauzin will end up skipping the House altogether, win a state office, and eventually run for the Senate.