Re #30:
"#(2) The religious right's social agenda...."
That wouldn't be our bothersome opposition to PRENATAL INFANTICIDE, now would it?
I think a serious drive to ban abortion completely would be a political disaster for the GOP.
Realistically, I think the only politically tenable result social conservatives can hope for are restrictions, such as a ban on partial-birth abortions, a ban on abortions in the 3rd trimester, regulation of abortion in the 2nd trimester, parental notification laws etc. But a total ban? Not going to happen.