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To: Moonman62
"They are very smart people and there is historical precedent for what they are saying (see 1987 stock market crash) Listen to them and understand. Do some research rather than calling them stupid."

Agreed.

There are, however, significant differences between now and 1987. September/October 1987 was a classic bubble. Go back and read some of Martin Zweig's stuff on the euphoria that was in place at the time. We are currently in a range bound stock market. Also, interest rates peaked just before the crash. If I recall, 30 year treasuries hit 10% the Thursday before black monday. There is no such spike in interest rates at the moment.

27 posted on 12/01/2004 12:58:32 PM PST by groanup (Rats are afraid of the light so spread a little sunshine.)
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To: groanup
There are, however, significant differences between now and 1987. September/October 1987 was a classic bubble. Go back and read some of Martin Zweig's stuff on the euphoria that was in place at the time. We are currently in a range bound stock market. Also, interest rates peaked just before the crash. If I recall, 30 year treasuries hit 10% the Thursday before black monday. There is no such spike in interest rates at the moment.

In that regard they are different for now (but we could be in a similar circumstance in the future). I'm referring to the weak dollar, and what can happen. We'd had a weak dollar policy since 1985's Plaza Accord. The week before the crash Greenspan gave an interview saying the dollar would have to continue to be weakened for many years to come (at least that's the way it was reported). That was the last interview Greenspan gave. He now gives speeches and testimony only.

Jimmy Carter also had a weak dollar policy that went too far. Rather than a crash, we had a significant continous decline.

33 posted on 12/01/2004 1:13:38 PM PST by Moonman62 (Federal Creed: If it moves tax it. If it keeps moving regulate it. If it stops moving subsidize it.)
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To: groanup
Go back and read some of Martin Zweig's stuff on the euphoria that was in place at the time.

I remember Zweig back around 1997 was asked by uncle Lou on Wall Street Week about the cause of the 1987 crash. I think Zweig said there was no particular single cause after Lou asked him if it was portfolio insurance. I think Zweig was the only major figure that predicted the crash, thus his fame.

My contention isn't that Greenspan caused the crash, but he triggered it with his reported statement. After all, I don't believe he'd even taken office yet.

35 posted on 12/01/2004 1:34:59 PM PST by Moonman62 (Federal Creed: If it moves tax it. If it keeps moving regulate it. If it stops moving subsidize it.)
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