1980 Republican blow out year, take the Senate
1986 Republicans lose Senate, big Democrat gains
As the weak first termers lose
Now fast forward to 1994, huge Republican gains in the Senate
6 years later in 2000 Republicans lose net 4 seats as the weak ones elected in 1994 lose.
2006 is six years after a very good election for Senate Democrats. This suggests to me that all the Dem rookies who won close races should be scared.
My prediction is a very good 2006 followed by more difficult years in the future. It's always harder for the party that has more freshman senators.
Yes, this is true. Of course, 2000 was such a good year for Dems because 1994 was such a good year for pubbies. All things being equal, you should expect each party to win close to 50% of the seats. A retirement really only throws the energy and funds for a battle to that seat from some other seat which would be hotly contested. The high number of retirement-related targets this year for the GOP was partly why there was very little $$ and attention for other vulnerable seats like in Washington and Wisconsin.
An abberation to this rule is the 2008 crop, which by sheer luck is very heavily skewed towards red states, so Dems will have a hard time gaining more than the only 12 seats they currently have.
Yes, this is true. Of course, 2000 was such a good year for Dems because 1994 was such a good year for pubbies. All things being equal, you should expect each party to win close to 50% of the seats. A retirement really only throws the energy and funds for a battle to that seat from some other seat which would be hotly contested. The high number of retirement-related targets this year for the GOP was partly why there was very little $$ and attention for other vulnerable seats like in Washington and Wisconsin.
An abberation to this rule is the 2008 crop, which by sheer luck is very heavily skewed towards red states, so Dems will have a hard time gaining more than the only 12 seats they currently have.
ADDITION:
The Democrats were foolish in 2004 to focus so much on red-state retirements. They should've spent their money on purple states like Kentucky and Pennsylvania.