There is no way we will be doing exactly what we are doing in Iraq now when 2014 rolls around-- not even for another year. They have to make progress in 2005. Otherwise, we will cut bait. I don't know what that will look like exactly, but we will. Our presence by no later than 2006 will be down to 35-40K troops.
I agree with you. 1 year tops, but we'll know in 6 months. right now, these iraqi police can't even figure out that when they line up for any reason - they need to keep cars away from the area, what is it about the phrase "car bomb" that they do not understand requires use of a car?
if our current attempts fail, we may well need an "organized" civil war there - with the goal of slapping the Sunnis down hard.