Posted on 11/29/2004 9:11:58 AM PST by cogitator
Evacuation Of Volcano-Hit Papua New Guinea Island Gets Underway
Port Moresby, PNG (AFP) Nov 28, 2004
An urgent evacuation of around 9,000 villagers from Papua New Guinea's remote Manam Island got underway Sunday amid fears the the island's volcano was on the verge of a major eruption, officials said.
The first batch of hundreds of islanders were taken off the island by container boat in the morning, an official coordinating the evacuation told AFP from the remote community of Bogia, where the islanders are to be taken.
"It is on its way to Bogia," disaster relief official John Bivi said, when asked about the boat's progress. He said the islanders were in relatively good shape despite the lack of food.
"Some of the food gardens and cash crops, trees and houses have been destroyed," he said. "There is no food and even water."
The first boatload was expected to complete the two-hour trip to Bogia by late afternoon.
Clouds of ash spewing from the cone of Manam Volcano, with plumes rising up to 10 kilometres (six miles) above the summit, have left ash raining back down on the fertile island for nearly a week.
Officials have blamed contaminated water for two deaths, although this was denied by Bivi who said nobody had died so far but there had been several injuries.
The mass evacuation could take up to a week and will require more than 20 trips by the container vessel, which has a capacity of around 600 people.
The evacuation was originally planned to begin on Saturday, but delays in bringing the ship from Port Moresby meant it only arrived in the regional centre of Madang late in the day.
Officials at the Rabaul Volcano Observatory, which has sent an observer to Manam to monitor the situation, said Sunday the levels of activity within the volcano were still rising.
From Madang, disaster relief official Luke Kalaua said the situation could worsen and that islanders could be at risk if they stayed.
"That means there is a possibility that it will go into a major eruption," he said.
Land has been prepared for the islanders near Bogia on a former coconut and cocoa plantation and the government expects to feed the evacuees for at least six months.
The eruption began last month but resumed with a vengeance a week ago, leaving the subsistence farmers and fishermen malnourished and short of clean water.
The island has no telephone service and relies on radio for contact with the outside world, and the poor communications have been worsened by the ash, which has rendered solar panels to generate electricity useless.
It remains unclear whether the islanders will be able to return to Manam.
It is not the first time the island has been evacuated. Its long history of volcanic eruptions has required similar evacuations in the past but the fertile soil and strong ties have always lured the islanders back.
However, traditional leaders have firmly backed the latest evacuation as there is little alternative.
Manam last erupted in 1996, when a lava flow hit a village and killed several people.
PNG contains a large number of volcanoes as it lies at the junction of two tectonic plates on the earth's surface.
QUICK! CALL THE EPA, THE KYOTO ACCORD NATIONS, KOFFI ANNAN, AND ALGORE! SOMETHING MUST BE DONE, LEGISLATION MUST BE PASSED TO PREVENT THIS VOLCANO FROM ERUPTING! IT'S ALL BUSH'S FAULT!!!
WOW!
Kind of puts little old mankind in perspective!
Thanks for the link -- being a volcano enthusiast, I do know what "Toba-scale" means, but the link will be informative to those who may not.
It's Bush's fault!
Eh, one can be pretty confident it's not going to erupt on the scale of Toba.
Looking at the Smithsonian info on Manam at
http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=0501-02=
It's never had an eruption with a VEI (Volcano Explosivity Index) above 4.
(It's a logarithmic scale, 5 is 10 times bigger than 4, 6 is 100 times bigger than 4, etc.)
Mount Saint Helens was a 5, and Pinatubo was a 6.
There hasn't been an eruption to affect climate at all since Pinatubo in 1991, and that's a pretty long time.
Even a 6 from Manam is pretty doubtful. Pinatubo had a record of eruptions as big as the last Pinatubo eruption extending back thousands of years. Manam has no such record.
I could see a 5 from Manam. 5s generally don't have much climate effect (Mount Saint Helens in 1980 was too small to affect climate) though eruptions close to the equator affect world climate more than an eruption of the same size away from the equator.
I just returned from the Philippines a few weeks ago. There are other volcanoes in the Philippines that are threatening to blow also.
Yeah I saw seismic activity started up at Taal a couple months ago but apparently not much has happened otherwise. And Mayon is sputtering as it usually does.
One thing about big eruptions is that they can affect the weather depending on the content of the ejecta. The climate here in interior Alaska is very sensitive to such effects, especially precipitation. At least as seen from my weather station [front yard]. The past decade has been very dry, and it would be refreshing to get some snow.
El Chichon in 1982 was a VEI 5. The eruption also killed about 2,000 people -- and was largely unnoticed by most of the Western world.
El Chichon, Mexico (good pictures)
This is one of the few pictures I've ever seen of the El Chichon eruption, I found it Google image searching for this reply:
This support column (with deformed rebar) is what remains of a building hit by one of El Chichon's pyroclastic flows. 
Yeah I forgot about Chichon; actually had a climate effect despite only having a VEI of 5 because it was chock-full of Sulfur Dioxide.
Having a motive indicates this must be one of those sentient volcanos.
Quick find some virgins to sacrifice.
Yes, those are the two I was thinking of. I saw Taal close up a few weeks ago. Well, actually, from a few miles off, because they are not allowing anyone to get near it right now, due to the fears of eruption. I think Taal was a huge one at one time, but is quite small now. I think it can, however, pack a serious wallop. Check this out.
http://www.tagaytay.com/
If it's not exploded in a while, then it's probably due for a big one.
Actually this volcano (Manam) erupts all the time; it erupted in 2003, 2002, and 2000, and then back in 1974, 1965, etc. fairly often the past 100 years.
Hmmm...they're not even allowing people near it?
I went to the PHIVOLCS site and they didn't have an update newer than the end of October for Taal....
http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/VolLatest.htm
Taal Volcano Bulletin
October 29, 2004
08:00 HRS
The Taal seismic monitoring network began to record significant volcanic earthquakes on September 23. In general, the number of these type of earthquakes occurring since then and up to the present has increased, with a maximum 13 earthquakes on October 15. Some of these earthquakes were instrumentally recorded with relatively large amplitudes although none were felt by residents on Volcano Island. Initial earthquake locations showed epicenters dispersed in the vicinity of Main Crater and to the North-Northwest near Binintiang Malaki and to the South-Southeast near Calauit.
Surface observations, however, did not indicate any significant change in the thermal and steam emission characteristics of the Main Crater Lake area.
The increased seismicity of Taal Volcano Island is an indication of a low-level episode of unrest although at this time, there is still no clear indication of an impending eruption. Possible manifestations, such as increased steam emission, increased temperatures of steam vents and other changes on the Crater Lake waters and of the ground are being continuously monitored. Thus, PHIVOLCS is raising the alert status of Taal Volcano from Alert Level 0 to Alert Level 1, effective immediately. Alert Level 1 means that there is a slight increase in seismic activity but no eruption is imminent. The ongoing seismic unrest could intensify in the coming days and weeks so that PHIVOLCS is recommending appropriate vigilance by the public when visiting the island. As one primary safety measure, PHIVOLCS recommends as off-limits the Main Crater area because sudden steam explosions may occur or high concentrations of noxious gases may accumulate. There are also several fissures traversing the Daang Kastila Trail which, when reactivated with steam emission, are also potentially hazardous to people. Other sites may be identified by PHIVOLCS as off-limits to visitors in the coming days.
PHIVOLCS is conducting several enhancements of the monitoring system of Taal with deployment of more earthquake and ground deformation surveillance and other related equipment. PHIVOLCS shall disseminate updates on the status of Taal Volcano to all concerned in the coming days and as necessary. PHIVOLCS reiterates that the entire Volcano Island is a Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) and permanent settlement in the area is strictly prohibited.
PHIVOLCS-DOST
This report was dated Oct 29th. I was there Oct 30th. Sometimes they would allow people to take a boat ride out to Taal, but when I was there last month, they only allowed people to go to the edge of the lake and no further. I did not do it anyway, as I was looking for a place to live when I retire. The weather in Tagaytay is really nice, but is very expensive, and I just feel uneasy about Taal being so close. It can't be more than 8 or 10 miles from major housing areas.
Major global warming alert......volcano going postal...wait a second...volcanic ash...Major global cooling event details at 11!
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