Jack and the Beanstalk and Party Realignment
Every since Ronald Reagan's landslide victory in 1980, along with Republican control of the Senate and a 33-seat pickup in the House of Representatives, students of American politics have investigated, debated and debunked the theory of party realignment in that case. But the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress, and the gains in both houses of Congress that accompanied George W. Bush's election and re-election in 2000 and 2004, have raised the question again. I believe the trend is pretty obvious, but these elections are at best watersheds, which becomes apparent once we see what follows them. Today's WaPo raises the question again, dutifully reporting the diverse opinions on the subject. (See the fine commentary on the piece at NoLeftTurns.) But like most (if not, practically all) such work the focus is more on effects than causes, on material causes more than formal or final ones. The real question is, Does a majority of the American people really believe that the administrative state (certainly, the appeasing state) has largely oulived its usefulness? A related question is, Does this majority believe that equality, rightly understood, requires the government to secure our rights rather than redistribute them (along with our privileges and income)? I mean that everything depends upon what lessons the American people draw from these elections. Do they, or will they, believe about Bush and the Republicans what my father and uncle did about FDR and the Democrats, viz., that they must always vote for the party that secures the common good as they understand it? Will they be saying the equivalent of, "Herbert Hoover and the Republicans got us into the depression and Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Democrats got us out of it?" The relevance of Jack and the Beanstalk is this: Jack was pretty lucky, what with magic beans, beanstalks to the clouds and gold in the giant's castle and all. But the real point of that old story is what Jack did with his luck. He did not have to buy the bean, climb the beanstalk, and charm the giant's wife, but he did. He made the most of what good fortune had dealt him. It is up to George W. Bush and other Republicans to take advantage of their opportunity, as Ronald Reagan and Newt Gingrich, in their very different ways, did before them. They need not only to enact the programs that will win over major constituencies to a less intrusive role for government, but to persuade their own traditional supporters to stay on board throughout the period of building and consolidating political gains. Nothing is guaranteed in politics, meaning Republicans will have to earn the right to govern for the next generation. The lessons Americans draw from these elections depend upon what Republicans teach them. As we look in our rear view mirrors, as it were, back at 1980, 1994 and 2004, to determine what is driving us in our current direction, we might be shocked to find out that "objects in mirror may be much closer than they appear." Everything depends on a steady hand at the wheel and a clear objective, our general direction having already been set but in need of constant attention. Perpetuation of party dominance depends upon daily devotion; it is not a fixed historical event. History doesn't determine people; people make their own history. History merely provides opportunities which must be grasped. |