Posted on 11/26/2004 12:30:00 PM PST by Ginifer
LONDON -- The Ukrainian election impasse has brought new attention to one of the world's worst-kept political secrets: The leaders of Russia and Europe, beneath their friendly façades, see each other more and more as gigantic whirlpools trying to suck away one another's financial and strategic resources.
That was immediately apparent yesterday when Russian President Vladimir Putin made a fog-enshrouded flight to The Hague to meet with leaders of the European Union. It was meant to be a summit to discuss sharing influence in the countries that sit between the two powers, but the Ukrainian situation destroyed any illusion of friendly co-operation and revealed deep and possibly permanent disagreements.
Mr. Putin began yesterday morning by sending a telegram to Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, whom the Kremlin had backed. It declared him the winner and boasted that he would "bring the Russian-Ukrainian strategic partnership to a new level."
Soon afterward, he stood on a podium with European leaders who said that the election was fraudulent and implied that Russia should stay away. Mr. Putin then openly denounced European efforts to negotiate a fair election result and said that the situation in Ukraine was not a European problem. By last night, EU foreign-policy minister Javier Solana had announced that he would travel to Ukraine today to try to reach "a negotiated diplomatic settlement" to the impasse.
As the meeting's original agenda disappeared into the gloom, the leaders sounded increasingly like large fish circling around a small and wounded minnow.
"I am deeply convinced that [the EU] has absolutely no moral right to push this large European country into mass-scale unrest of any sort," Mr. Putin said of European efforts to scrutinize the vote. "I do not think other countries can recognize or refuse to recognize the elections in Ukraine. This is the Ukrainian people's business."
Those words reflected a growing fear of EU dominance felt by Mr. Putin and his colleagues.
That fear was spelled out in explicit detail last week by Konstantin Kosachev, a close ally of Mr. Putin and chairman of the Duma committee on foreign affairs. In a speech to the Russian legislature, he expressed what are said to be Mr. Putin's deep fears of an expanding EU driving America and the rest of the world away from an increasingly feeble Russia.
Mr. Kosachev warned that Europe "before our eyes, is slowly but surely drawing in, like a giant whirlpool, our neighbours. Russia, obviously, feels this strong gravitational pull."
He warned of "a growing confrontation in post-Soviet territory" in which "Western critics are increasingly frequently accusing Russia of pursuing imperialistic goals," while "these countries [such as Ukraine and its neighbours] are forced to accept an anti-Russian orientation."
The EU's financial assistance, in the view of Mr. Kosachev and many other Russian officials, is a form of bribery to draw countries such as Ukraine out of the Russian economic and political sphere and into Europe, in effect turning Russia into an isolated, economically feeble power.
"Eastern European countries are constantly offered participation in Western European structures as a sort of 'refuge' from Russia in order to neutralize its influence," he said.
As the summit collapsed into mutual accusations, the Russian and European leaders were able to find official agreement on only one major point: Neither power wants to see the Ukraine crisis resolved in a violent fashion.
Trying to educate the naive is a thankless task, but I keep trying...
"EASTERN REACTION
But there was a different message from Russian-speaking eastern regions which account for Ukraine's economic muscle and mainly back Yanukovich.
In the big coal mining center of Donetsk, a group of regional deputies threatened to hold a referendum on autonomy if Yushchenko succeeded in overturning Yanukovich's election.
"We can live without that half (of the population). But can they live without us?," said Donetsk mayor Alexander Lukyanchenko."
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=APPN0D0VWXX0ECRBAEKSFFA?type=topNews&storyID=6931590&pageNumber=0
(above quote is on page 2 & 3)
I wonder who you could be referring to, here? Senator Lugar? Colin Powell, maybe? The OSCE? The Polish government? The Canadians...
President Bush?
There sure a lot of us naive people out there, FairOpinion. I don't know how you do it! LOL.
The only question is: what do the Ukrainians think?
Personally, I think that most Ukrainians--even those in the Russian east, would prefer to join the rising tide of Europe than sink back into Russo-Asiatic torpor.
If Yuschenko is genuine (i.e., not a Russian plant or a European plant, but a Ukrainian patriot), he will put this question to the people early in his term.
What Kuchma/Putin are trying to do is decide it NOW, in the heat of this bubbling civil confict. IF they succeed, then the Ukraine will indeed be split between East and West, and all Ukrainians will be the worse for it.
You should pay careful attention to what people say.
President Bush was very careful with his statement and earlier White House press releases were carefully worded as well.
Powell, on the other hand, made statements, which can be interpreted as a direct challenge to Russia, a very poor idea.
Here is a transcript to Bush's statement earlier today.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041126/nyf055_1.html
Tell you what, I'll make a deal with you: If Bush comes down on the side Yanukovich/Kuchma/Putin, I won't post a single word about this confict again. If, on the other hand, Bush supports the opposition, you'll do the same.
What do you think?
Ever heard of good-cop, bad cop?
Bush:
"There's just a lot of allegations of vote fraud that placed their election -- the validity of their elections in doubt. The international community is watching very carefully. People are paying very close attention to this, and hopefully it will be resolved in a way that brings credit and confidence to the Ukrainian government."
Powell:
"We cannot accept this result as legitimate because it does not meet international standards and because there has not been an investigation of the numerous and credible reports of fraud and abuse"
What I don't understand is why he is so keen to promote Russian interests.
France is a haven for terrorists and dictators. Everyone from Mugabee to Ghadafi to arafat is at home there. Why? France is a threat whether you recognize it or not.
I'll trust the administration on this, "Punish France. Ignore Germany. Forgive Russia."-Condi Rice
Fair Opinion might be a muzzie who is supportive of Russia's agreement to supply Iran with nuclear fuel for the Russian-built Bushehr reactor. Someone who wants Iran to get the bomb.
So will you trust the administration on the Ukraine, as well? See Colin Powell and President Bush's statements.
Where's the Presidents statement? I missed it. Colin Powell? No.
Bush:
"There's just a lot of allegations of vote fraud that placed their election -- the validity of their elections in doubt. The international community is watching very carefully. People are paying very close attention to this, and hopefully it will be resolved in a way that brings credit and confidence to the Ukrainian government."
Thank you. Yes, I can back that. I still think neither guy is a good deal for the country, only for outside political interests.
I fear you may be right.
Best possible outcome: a free and independent Ukraine applying for membership into the EU. It is hard to see how that might happen.
Worst possible outcome: A subjugated Ukraine devolving into a Russian vassal-state, a la Belarus.
Likeliest outcome: A "negotiated settlement" that puts Yuschenko in control of the national government, with the Kremlin's designate controlling a semi-autonomous East. This would lead inevitably to partition into two states.
'I'll trust the administration on this, "Punish France. Ignore Germany. Forgive Russia."-Condi Rice'
"France is a haven for terrorists and dictators. Everyone from Mugabee to Ghadafi to arafat is at home there. Why? France is a threat whether you recognize it or not."
I wish I didn't see this. Did Rice really say this? Should we forgive them when their nuclear equipment help Iran produce a bomb that ends up in D.C. or NYC. I think not. France is not a threat. I don't share your fear of the French. I am no major fan of France's policies, but they don't seem to constitute a threat, especially no in comparison to the world's greates proliferator of weapons, Russia. I'm not sure if France is exactly a haven for terrorists either. They have some problems with their muslim population there, but I don't think there are any terror camps in France.
This is not good cop, bad cop, this is Powell being a loose cannon, undermining Bush's carefully cultivated relationship with Putin. Putin has always been representing the EU, instead of the US. I can't wait for him to go.
"The incoming Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, is a Russian expert and an architect of Mr. Bush's pro-Putin tilt. "
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB110142533278883805,00.html?mod=opinion%5Fmain%5Freview%5Fand%5Foutlooks
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