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Very good advice from Dr. Alexandr Nemets re: Ukraine, etc...

America and the Eurasian Alliance (Part II)
Dr. Alexandr Nemets
Friday, May 23, 2003

On May 18-19, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov visited Malaysia and, according to initial data, concluded new agreements regarding Russian weapons supply to this country.

What remains of the sometimes firm American grip on Southeast Asia? Probably the Philippines alone. That's because Chinese influence in Singapore and Thailand is burgeoning, and other members of the Eurasian Alliance will follow the Chinese lead in these countries.

3) Expansion to Belarus, Ukraine and, possibly, Poland

Belarus, "the last dictatorship in Europe," enjoys perfect ties with both Russia – within the framework of the emerging "United States of Russia and Belarus" – and China. Moreover, Belarusian President Lukashenko is developing ties with Western Europe while opposing the "American dictate."

Poland, which is doing its best to become the real ally of America, is located between China-Russia-Belarus (eastern part of Eurasian Alliance) and Germany-France-Belgium (western part of Eurasian Alliance). For how long will the "Polish buffer" be capable of withstanding the growing pressure from both East and West? It would be particularly irrational to underestimate Germany’s influence over Poland.

Ukraine, criminalized and chaotic, is extremely unstable. This country is under great pressure from Russia, namely:

The Kremlin intends to add Ukraine to the "United States of Russia and Belarus"; Putin himself is giving top priority to ties with Ukrainian president Kuchma and other local leaders.

Russian oligarchs are purchasing, almost for nothing, tidbits of Ukrainian petrochemical and steel industries.

Russian TV channels broadcast to Ukraine pictures of "Mother Russia prospering under kind czar Putin." And this works: The starving Ukrainians are jealous of half-starving Russians!
Remarkably, China also has strong positions in Ukraine as the major purchaser of Ukrainian weapons technology, steel, etc. These positions solidified after President Kuchma's visit to China in mid-April.

And it is hard to overestimate the political and economic influence of Germany and France in Ukraine, which prefers the euro to the dollar and aspires to become an EU member.

At some moment, the pressure from East and West will become unbearable, and Ukraine will fall under Eurasian Alliance control. That's very probable. And this will add to the pressure on Poland. By the way, Moscow is extremely irritated by Polish consent to send troops to patrol postwar Iraq.

4) Expansion in Central Asia

In October 2001, NATO put air bases in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. It was supposed that, in the new environment, Chinese, Russian and Iranian influence in oil-rich Kazakhstan and other Central Asian nations would weaken dramatically.

However, French and German servicemen came to these bases along with American servicemen. And French oil companies are presently expanding investments in oil and gas deposits in western Kazakhstan. Will it be possible for American troops as well as U.S. and U.K. oil companies to counterbalance the influence of the Eurasian Alliance in this strategic region?

5) Expansion on Korean Peninsula

On May 11-15, the Moscow media – both the leftist and the pro-government media – gave following "average" estimation of the events on the Korean peninsula:

North Korea recently, after the Iraqi War, accomplished its exit from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, thus openly challenging Washington. At the end of April, U.S. representatives came to Beijing for talks with North Korea, thus confirming Beijing's role of mediator and arbiter.

In several days, Secretary of State Colin Powell claimed, the conflict will be solved on the basis of old conditions, shameful for America: fuel oil deliveries to Pyongyang in exchange for nuclear weapons production termination. And such termination is non-checkable in the environment of Kim Jong-il's regime.

Eventually, it is possible to conclude that China will confirm its dominating position in Northeast Asia. (end of Moscow media estimations)

Can we agree with such an insulting-to-America conclusion? The point is that Chinese economic and political influence also grew very strong in South Korea, not just in North Korea, in 2000-2002.

South Korean magazines claim that the old "Degoog" (Great Country) phenomenon has been reborn. In medieval Korea, top-ranking officials used to call China the "Great Country" and considered the emperor's court in Beijing to be the supreme authority.

Now South Korean former presidents, parliament deputies, etc., are using every opportunity available to visit Beijing and meet the president or premier of China, to ask them for mediation and support in their troubles with North Korea, to scratch out some economic concessions. "Degoog" is back.

And Moscow, enraged by the defeat in Iraq, is hopeful for "compensation," with Chinese assistance, on the Korean peninsula: If America is "out" and Moscow is "in," then it would be possible to lay the dreamed-of Trans-Korean railway, which could be connected, through the Trans-Siberian railway and Moscow, with Western Europe. A lot of gains for the entire Eurasian Alliance!

By the way, in 2001-2002, the EU established ties with Pyongyang.

6) The struggle is also under way on the South Asian subcontinent, the Middle East (out of Iraq and Iran), Eastern Europe (out of Poland), Balkans, etc.

3. Some Conclusions

It is easy to see that, by May 2003, almost the entire Eurasian Continent became an arena of struggle between America, U.K. and their allies (Eastern European countries, Italy, Spain, Scandinavian countries, Japan) and the expanding Eurasian Alliance. No side can claim victory at this stage.

However, the most important fact is that the Eurasian Alliance is only forming, taking its initial shape. At the next stage, the mature Eurasian Alliance could become extremely threatening to American interests, because it would combine

the mighty financial and technological potential of Germany, France and, probably, the three countries of Benelux;

the huge economic potential and work force of China;

rich Russian natural resources and the remaining military-technological potential of this country.
America would have to deal with an "unbeatable" adversary. Moreover, the geopolitical struggle could spread – or is spreading already – to Africa, Latin America and Oceania.
However, Russia, which put together the Eurasian Alliance both geographically and organizationally, is also the most vulnerable point of the newly emerged alliance.

If and when Moscow – NOT Russia – is out of picture, the Eurasian alliance would cease to exist. The following should be taken into account in the most serious way:

Almost the entire real wealth of Russia is concentrated in Moscow; Moscow is an object of hatred by almost all other Russian regions, particularly by the destroyed and impoverished peripheral regions of the Far East, the northern part of European Russia and the North Caucasus.

Some of these regions – both "local elite" and "common people" – are eager to accept any assistance from outside, particularly from the U.S., the U.K. and Japan – to get rid of "Moscow’s protection."

U.S. diplomacy should "forget" Moscow and the Kremlin and concentrate efforts on the Russian periphery. This is a life-and death-problem.

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics" and the forthcoming "Russian-Chinese Alliance."

Link:

http://newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/5/22/150547.shtml