[Dallas59]

I take back my previous post...

Jan 2000:

Stephen Roach:

The forces behind the slower growth -- higher energy prices, a slowdown in technology spending, tighter credit, and the negative effects of declining stock prices --

certainly aren't going away. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Chief Economist Stephen Roach argues that with this mix in place, all it would take is one of three "shocks" to shove the U.S. into recession. These include a full-scale energy crisis, brought on by a very cold winter or a war in the Middle East; a weakening dollar, as foreign funds pull out of the U.S.; or a stock-market crash that scares consumers into curbing spending.

Unfortunately, none of these shock scenarios seem far-fetched right now. Roach gives a 40% probability of recession in the first half of 2001. "To me, that is tantamount to maximum alert," he writes.

[durasell]

He's not brilliant, but he's a smart guy. Half of being a smart guy is recognizing the problem. However, predicting how that problem will manifest itself is the work of a brilliant guy...the best you can do with any of these guru types is listen to the set of problems/forces they lay out and then make up your own mind. Never bet on someone else being brilliant.