I love this. They so totally missed what happened that that gives me hope that we can keep doing this, althought I had thought they might change their approach.
The fact is, the Dems NEVER figured out the fraud of their own numbers: there were NEVER "new" DEM voters---they were Dem replacement voters who made up for lost urban and unemployed population. The "job loss" thing cut both ways. Unhappy unemployed people tend to LEAVE and therefore all the GOP voters were, in fact, new and all the Dem voters were substitutes for shrinking county rolls.
My first clue that Bush won OH was when I went to vote in Springboro, a new, suburban area of Dayton that is heavily Republican: at 7:30 there was a half-hour line. This had NEVER happened before, and although I chalked it up to "anecdotal" experience, when I got to GOP HQ, others from the 'burbs were telling me the same thing. Then, when I "flushed" a Kettering precinct at 11:00 (which is 50% Dem, 35% GOP and 15% IND) and more than half the Republicans had already voted, I knew we were hitting our targets. By 4:00 when I went back, 90% of the Republicans had already voted. So I knew we would be at 100% of our targets or above. I had faith that Rove and his organization knew the target numbers we needed, so I knew Bush won at 5:30 when I asked our D.C. Mafia kid who was running the GOTV drive, "How we doin'?" and he just nodded happily and said, "We're hitting all our numbers." That was all I needed to know.
Ultimately, the Dems just did not understand the numbers. Thank God that Mehlman, Rove, and people like Jay Cost did. Cost's number crunching kept me calm amidst all the "exit poll" turmoil, because I knew if we hit our targets, Bush won, period.
Another thing, this ACT guy in his won words destroys the LW moonbat theory regarding the exit polls. He shows the shift in exit polls as the rural voting results catches up to the quicker urban results during the day.