"In a purely strategic sense, waiting until Iran has nukes would make a lot of sense. Why attack the U.S. in a big way, thus giving us an excuse to take out Iran's nukes, when all they have to do is wait a few more months? If I were Iran, I would put all the pressure I could on Al Qaida to hold off."
Babbin and Eagleburger were on MSNBC last night and both confirmed the existence of a rumor (not its veracity) that Iran has obtained 3 nuclear warheads on the black market.
I am not sure if this is a rehashing of the old rumors that they acquired 3-4 tactical warheads from Kazakhstan in the 1993-1994 time frame or if this is a new story.
In any case, the public time frame on indigenous nuclear production is based on the *known* facilities. The North Korean example shows that the known facilities are merely the iceburg's tip of a clandestine manufacturing infrastructure. Before the existence of the covert uranium enrichment program came to light, most experts put the time frame in years, not months. I assume enrichment has been proceeding for some time at underground sites unknown to the international community.
My guess is that the concerns Powell expressed with regard to warhead design are connected to their satellite launch scheduled to take place sometime in the next few weeks or months. Like the North Korean missile test of 8/31/98, it will seek to demonstrate a capability to deliver a nuclear payload to the continental United States (by missiles in addition to martyrs).
The UBL pre-election threat was aired (not delivered) less than 48 hours after the lunar eclipse.
It is difficult to establish correlations when we are only able to observe successful attacks while attempted attacks that are unsuccessful are unknowable.
The doctrine of the "hidden Imam" is also known as the "occultation".
The "grazing effect" will be seen in Texas - - outside San Antonio and just south of Houston.
The opposite of an occultation (a concealment) is an apocalypse (a revelation).
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6645253/
http://www.space.com/php/multimedia/imagedisplay/img_display.php?pic=041203_jupiter_occultation_map_02.gif
Babbin and Eagleburger were on MSNBC last night and both confirmed the existence of a rumor (not its veracity) that Iran has obtained 3 nuclear warheads on the black market.
I had not heard this before. If the rumor is true, it creates a strategic nightmare. As you know, the leadership of Iran has publicly stated that allah would be pleased to see 100 million Muslims die, if Israel were destroyed in the process. Mutual Assured Destruction does not seem very effective against this mindset.
Under this mindset, the only target that might deter a nuclear attack on Israel is Mecca. The only nation that would attack Mecca is Israel, and then only if Israel has been wiped out by a nuclear first strike.
Contrary to the hot blooded opinions of some Freepers, the United States would not destroy Mecca even if we were nuked. The only way the U.S. would destroy Mecca is if the war against terror becomes an all out war between all of Islam and the rest of the world. Even then we would probably hold back, hoping to win the war some other way.
