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To: farlander

>>>"Battle for Taiwan would be an amphibious assault."

What if they are already there?

What if they just fly in on commercial airlines?

What if the large number of those people in Taiwan that support merging with China go along with the program and form an internal core to help the Communist Chinese that have been infilitrating over the last 5 years?

Taiwan may just quickly surrender, rather than defend themselves and thus see massive destruction of its infrastructure.

The conditions in Taiwan are not the same as they were in the 1940's, 1950's and 1960's. There are a lot of Chinese in Taiwan (about 15 %) that came over from mainland China after World War II that are incensed over the strong rhetoric and treatment of the original Chinese in Taiwan (about 85 %). This 85 % has taken back leadership only in the last 8 years or so. The Chang Kai Shek party is out, the original Chinese are in and there's a fierce internal conflict going on.

If Taiwan surrendered, it wouldn't be nice if they had tons of sophisticated US weapons to hand over to their new masters.

We shouldn't get involved unless all of Taiwan is on the same page: fight to the death. If that's the case, then we should go back to our original deal: defense of Taiwan. Until then, we should just continue our rhetoric... and get the currencies to float to slow down the Chinese juggernaut.

Hoppy


89 posted on 11/17/2004 12:12:31 PM PST by Hop A Long Cassidy
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To: Hop A Long Cassidy
What if they are already there?

What if they just fly in on commercial airlines?

What if the large number of those people in Taiwan that support merging with China go along with the program and form an internal core to help the Communist Chinese that have been infilitrating over the last 5 years?

Taiwan may just quickly surrender, rather than defend themselves and thus see massive destruction of its infrastructure.


Excellent points. I also happen to agree with them. China is not going to waste a vast amount of resources to take one small island nation, but they still want it as it is of strategic importance. So we have a dilemma on our hands here with respect to what we think China will do rather than thinking what China is thinking to do. China is very observant about the past and current movements. They will take a path that is of least resistance to them to save on resources, time, and outside sources(namely us). They will think outside the box, and our overthrow of Saddam will only reinforce that way of thinking since they have to be careful on how they proceed and at the same time it has also influence their outlook on warfare. I highly doubt that we have seen what they really are thinking in terms of their ability to plan.

If they get enough insurgents into their society that our qualified special forces personnel, then they have what they need to decapitate Taiwan's C4I. Given the info on what they have on every person the Intelligence aspect of this is already a moot point. You can assume that a number of key individuals in Taiwan's armed forces are already compromised. You can also assume that they have enough political or want to be political leaders ready to tout some form of a PRC line as you have suggested. All that is need is the elimination or blinding of Taiwan’s defense forces to allow for enough time. Then it’s a done deal. We would have to reluctantly agree not to get involved or further involved. Anyone fighting or in a resistance would simply be killed quickly either by informants or unfortunately groups set up by the PRC government that goes out and portrays themselves a rebels against the PRC. Any concentration of Defense forces still willing to fight could be targeted by a missile barrage since they are accurate enough. Of course there are different scenarios that can take place or more ingenious methods of warfare that hasten a PRC victory. If we don’t wake up to that aspect of things we are going to be sorely surprised.
124 posted on 11/17/2004 1:37:09 PM PST by DarkWaters
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