We will never go into open war to defend Taiwan from China. The reason? Taiwan is just not 'important' enough to warrant sending thousands of US troops to fight a war with China that would have economical ramifications reverberating around the world! And if you look at the actions of both the Clinton and Bush administrations you will notice that is one thing they both agree 100% on.
China has carte blanche to do nigh anything they want (not anything, but nigh anything), and when they go after Taiwan the most Taipei should expect from the US is satellite reconnaisance but nothing more.
It will be up to Taiwan to protect itself (unless Taipei can pull of an economic miracle and become an economic lodestone like China is .....apparently. Unless Taiwan can do that then any confrontation with Beijing will not be receiving any tangible support for Uncle Sam).
And people expect the US will rush in and fend off the Chinese in a valiant bid to protect freedom and democracy in Taiwan. Noble ideal, but not to the politicians and corporations that profit in a myriad of ways from China.
Taiwan better have viable stratagems that viably tackle the possibility of Taiwan being solo when China decides to cross the strait. Because the US will only offer basic help, and the nations in Taiwans periphery (ranging from Singapore to Japan to even Australia) will just sit on their hands. The best chances for taiwan would be Japan (it has probably the second best navy in the world after the US, and it is also a target in China's eyes) but ol' nippon will probably sit this one out (after all why should it risk itself for Taiwan? That may sound selfish, but look at it from Japan's perspective. They would probably just spend the time buffing up their own capabilities rather than spending them on the defense of Taiwan). India is a potent anti-China nation that would have an impact, but India's geo-political influence is too far from Taiwan (and like Japan they probably wouldn't do a thing even if they were closer).
I think you misunderestimate President Bush. He said he would defend Tawain and I believe him. Perhaps its one good reason for Mr. Powell's departure.
I'm pretty sure this is the way Saddam felt about Kuwait.
India would stay out of it for another reason: Pakistan. China and Pakistan have decent relations with each other, and it would only take a phone call from Beijing to Islamabad, accompanied by the promise of all of Kashmir and a healthy chunk of Islamic northern India to mobilize the Paki's against the Indians. India wouldn't stand a chance against a coordinated Pakistani/Chinese offensive. One or the other, maybe. But not both at once.
Russia arms India, Khazakstan, S.Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and offered on its own and through Washington to arm Taiwan.