Posted on 11/17/2004 10:32:59 AM PST by TapTheSource
CHINA WATCHES, WAITS: MASSIVE MILITARY BUILD-UP, MAJOR ESPIONAGE EFFORT
November 17, 2004 By Toby Westerman Copyright 2004 International News Analysis Today www.inatoday.com
Despite assurances from just-resigned Secretary of State Collin Powell regarding U.S.-China relations, the second term of the administration of George W. Bush could encounter a major war in the Pacific, and is witnessing a major espionage offensive.
Communist China is demonstrating an increasingly high level of aggression and military intrusion against its neighbors, engaging in actions which could pull the United States into a naval war in the Pacific.
Taiwan faces invasion - possibly at any moment -- from China, at least one Chinese submarine has intruded into Japanese waters, and, most amazingly, Chinese intelligence services have been able to acquire a file of personal data on nearly every inhabitant on the island of Taiwan. Communist China's spy services have targeted and succeeded in obtaining files on military service records, vehicle and household registration, and national health data, according to the Taiwan news daily, the Taipei Times.
China claims Taiwan as a rebel province. The government on Taiwan, known formally as the Republic of China on Taiwan (ROC), fled to the island following its defeat at the hands of Communist forces on the mainland. Although the U.S. no longer has formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the U.S. remains committed to the island under the terms of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.
China's ability to compromise nearly every citizen of Taiwan, including the highest ranking military and governmental personnel, raises alarming questions concerning Beijing's espionage capabilities directed against other opponents, including the United States. Already in the mid and late 1990s, newspaper headlines reported the loss of important U.S. military and technology secrets to China. It is an open question as to how far Beijing has gone in the penetration and documentation of American society.
The mainland Communist government remains adamant in its determination to invade at the first declaration of Taiwan independence, and recent statements from Beijing declare that Taiwan is "playing with fire" as it presses for recognition as a separate nation.
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian has vowed to seek a membership for Taiwan in the United Nations as an independent state, further enraging Beijing.
China is conducting an impressive modernization of its armed forces, which leads Pentagon observers to warn that Beijing could eventually rival U.S. forces in the Pacific. China is building an increasingly sophisticated military to successfully obstruct any U.S. attempt to aid Taiwan in case of Communist invasion.
China's military capabilities potentially not only threaten Taiwan, as China's disputes with its neighbors grow and as the nations in the Asia-Pacific region keep a wary eye on the increasingly powerful Red Dragon.
Japanese naval forces recently hunted a foreign submarine intruding into Japan's territorial waters. Indications from the sub's identifiable sounds and its course of sail pointed to Communist China as its nation of origin.
The incident occurred 75 miles south of a group of disputed islands, known as the Senkaku to the Japanese and Diaoyu to the Chinese, highlighting the contest between Japan and China for oil and gas resources believed to exist in the region.
Following two days of international crisis, China finally admitted that the "mystery" sub was theirs, and claimed a "technical error" for the intrusion.
The United States Navy is the only major force in the Pacific belonging to a democratic nation, and America remains committed to the defense of Taiwan, Japan and other allies in the region.
In 1958, the U.S. fought alongside Taiwanese forces in a deadly artillery conflict with China's Peoples Liberation Army, and in the following years sent naval forces on several occasions to deter a mainland attack on Taiwan.
As China's power grows, so too will the challenge to the U.S. presence in the region, and America's commitment to its allies.
Man, you are one huge source of information. I'll be sure to ping you from now on (hopefully you will remember to ping me as well!). Thanks--TTS
What? We get to fight a 'normal, play-by-the-rules' war?
...China's ability to compromise nearly every citizen of Taiwan, including the highest ranking military and governmental personnel, raises alarming questions concerning Beijing's espionage capabilities directed against other opponents, including the United States....
This cannot be stressed enough. Our governemnt is swimming in Chinese cash. Our Senate voted unanimously to not have a trial of the Chinese Assets that formerly occupied the White House.
Anyone want to bet who has copies of those famous FBI files?
Nothing has really changed since then.
the commies wouldn't follow any rules, so I believe we'll use our full arsenal.
And for those who don't already know this, last spring (IIRC), we sent about seven carrier groups to China to warn the Chi-Coms away from attacking Taiwan. The Chinese leaders have threatened to launch on us again, since, because they can't hold their water. My guess is that we probably still have at least two carrier groups near the Strait. Quite a few allies are also aiming at the Chinese now, although India could now blow them away without the help from Australia, friends in southeast Asia, et al.
My suggestion to American corporates is to take a really good, up-close look at India and some of the friendlier Pacific Rim countries. China has an ugly and growing pollution problem, anyway, as it's been putting all of its smoking, oozing factories in the muddy river plains instead of where drainage and natural filtering would be better (the higher elevations they want to preserve for the tourists).
Actually, Chinese don't have a chance in hell of taking Taiwan any time soon.
Battle for Taiwan would be an amphibious assault. The history shows amphibious assaults required the following :
1. Sufficient Amphibious Transportation capacity
2. Complete Air Superiority of the Theater of Battle
Chinese at this point do not have enough shipping capacity to mount an invasion that could suceed. They've been adding tonnage to their fleet like mad lately, however, they'll need another 7-10 years worth.
In the air superiority arena, they're even further behind. They're trying to compensate with a large number of medium range ballistic missiles pointed at the island. Their best chance is a surprise strike on the Taiwan airfields where the F-16 there get destroyed on the ground. Barring that, even if US Pacific Fleet didn't intervene, Chinese could only have contested airspace over their invasion fleet - not even close to achieving superiority. Hence, the vehement Chinese opposition to the proposed AEGIS sale to Taiwan - the radar system could server as critical early warning and tracking node in the Taiwanese defense network that would completely make a suprise destruction of Taiwanese air force an impossibility.
Without the air superiority over the straigths, Chinese troop carriers trying to cross would quickly go to the watery graves. If the pacific fleet's carrier battlegroup(s)intervened, Chinese are looking at completely hostile airspace over their invasion fleet - buncha very expensive scrap metal. I wouldn't worry about Chinese invasion of Taiwan any time soon. I'm worried about Chinese invasion of Russia. Russians have been bulding up their nuclear arsenal not because they're scared of us - they're scared of the Chinese. There's already 20 mil illegal chinese inside Russia. Only thing that's stopping the Chinese from "going to the help of their oppressed countrymen" is the fact Russians would nuke them as the first regiment crossed the Russian border.
I really do think we're going to throw Taiwan under the bus on this one. We're having to stop-loss and extend reservist's tours to ensure enough boots on the ground in the Middle East as it is. I do not see us having enough assets to open a second front to protect Taiwan and the Far East at this time. Unfortunate, but I don't see any way it can be done without harming our War on Terror effort.
The sleeping giant stirs.
Though we are sworn to defend Taiwan, we kinda got our hands full atm.
In more ways than you know!
MV
"They should work towards a political solution of their differences now. The only thing that can change the course is if the people of China, having tasted alittle bit of freedom, rise up and for a democracy. This might happen as their economy grows and the people improve the quality of their living."
The people will not rise up as long as their financial situation is good and they see China's power growing in the world. If the economy turns bad China will become more beligerant toward Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. in order to shore up the populace with nationalism. It does not look good and we should be prepared for any eventuality.
Taiwan is one of the few true allies the USA has in this scary world.
Afraid I agree. How many Taiwanese are fighting in Fallujah this week? There's also the Sudan. The world is overwhelmed by tyranny and evil. There are just so many locations that we can manage.
Dubya or any president would have to ignore the Taiwan Relations Act which (it's my understanding, not sure of the fine print niceties) requires the United States to come to Taiwan's defense if they are attacked. Our relations with both the PRC and ROC have been a high wire act ever since Nixon's visit and joint communique in 1972.
Hmmm. The play on the financial front is not likely
to work.
US govt debt relative to GDP is only about 38%.
Compare that w/ approx 140% in the 1940s.
The budget deficit relative to GDP is only
about 4.5%. Cut taxes, spur growth, convert
deficits into surplus.
US military spending is only about 4.1% relative
to GDP too.
Why do countries seem to never figure out that
nat resource-based economies do not lead? It
is technology- or innovation-based economies
that lead.
MV
What kind of help is Taiwan extending us in the WOT? I'd be happy to hear of it. Generally, our warmest allies are those who depend on us, not those allies we can depend on. With a few exceptions...GB, Aus, and Poland...
We could really piss off the Chinese and just annex Taiwan.
"Chinese intelligence services have been able to acquire a file of personal data on nearly every inhabitant on the island of Taiwan."
After the PRC invades and subjugates Taiwan, expect massive arrests and incarcerations in "Re Education" camps. It will be a repeat of Mao's massacre of millions in the 50s and 60s.
"What this means, is that PRC nationals have, and have had for quite a long time, access to extremely senstive private info on a large number of people in the US. Now, I must ask, how easy or difficult would it have been to embed operatives amongst all those H1Bs and L1As?"
What you say is very insightful. It is absolutely the case and I know this from firsthand experience. There is tons of very sensitive data easily available with almost no safeguards whatsoever. If a war ever breaks out with China we need to realize that a serious threat is posed by Chinese nationals working at U.S. companies. I hope someone in Washington is working on this.
"And for those who don't already know this, last spring (IIRC), we sent about seven carrier groups to China to warn the Chi-Coms away from attacking Taiwan."
Actually, I think that had more to do with Red China's provocative moves toward Japan/US/Britain re: the massive oil/natural gas find in the S. China Sea. I say this because, Powell has been on the world circuit telling everyone who will listen that Taiwan belongs to Communist China. Can't wait for Powell to leave. Unfortunately, I don't think Condi Rice's position on Taiwan is much better.
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