My bet is that they will find that the kid had less than 12 hours of sleep over a five day period...and was mostly mentally exhausted. For years, this scenario has been played over and over...and people (even pilots) can't operate at realistic mental capacity with a average of 3 hours or less of sleep per day. Take a stripe away from the kid....sent him to mental eval...and then welcome him back after six months. He's a great lesson upon other members of the corps on what can happen when you aren't thinking. He should not get jail time...its simply a total waste.
When one side ignores the law of war and pulls the kind of crap those Fallujah dirtbags are pulling, it inevitably drags even the good guys down a bit. A message needs to be sent that we don't routinely condone that type of action, but I don't want to see anything bad happen to that Marine, either. He's doing his job, and its not a pretty place in which to be doing it.
I've been rather pleasantly surprised by the number of people at my work, even liberals, who won't condemn this kid. I think they get it.