"Kerry would have to win 76% of all the provisional and undervote/overvote ballots to change the results. It's not gonna happen (unless there's been a major tabulation miscount). This assumes there will be a recount which seems pretty much a given at this point."
Provisional ballots tend to favor Dems very heavily. It is a certain type of voter that doesn't have any ID, and shows up to vote. And that type of voter doesn't vote Republican.
"Provisional ballots tend to favor Dems very heavily"
Not according to the Blackwell. On election night he suggested that the provisionals would favor Bush (mimic actual vote).