Ohio Has Clearer Picture of Provisional Ballots (As Predicted-80% Accepted, 11 Counties So Far)

Newsday ^ | 11/16/04 18:41ET | Mark Williams

[only1percent]

All-in, Kerry is likely to gain about 50,000 votes on the provisionals, cutting Bush's lead to about 85,000 votes.

The point of the recount is not to get the provisionals or the military absentees in -- they were always going to come in -- but to force a manual count of the undervotes.

If there are around 200,000 undervotes gross, at most 100,000 of them are going to have ascertainable votes, and then they'd have to cut 92.5%-7.5% for Kerry to get him over the top. It is not going to happen.

However, we may end up being stuck in a statewide chad examination with litigation to enjoin Blackwell and Taft from making the final certification, even if it is mathematically improbable for result to change.

[jveritas]

This 81% approval figure came from 11 rural counties where they have much less voters, much less provisional ballots and hence less likely to have bogus names and registrations.

In other counties like Lucas county (Toledo) there were around 6000 provisional ballots and over half of these were rejected (source Toledo Blade newspaper, search under provisional ballots on their website).

In Cuyahoga county (Cleveland area), the article that was posted yesterday on FR (search FR for Ohio+provisional ballots) said that out of 9000 provisional ballots counted so far, one third have been rejected. Total provisional ballots in Cuyahoga is 24733 the largest number in Ohio.

[smonk]

---The point of the recount is not to get the provisionals or the military absentees in -- they were always going to come in -- but to force a manual count of the undervotes.---

I don't think this is going to happen. ohio has it's act together; it's courts have ruled when a chad is a vote, and when it isn't.

and the mischief with the provisionals was indeed going to come in, but what was a valid provisional ballot was the subject of quite some controversy before the election; any reasonably prudent person would have been wary.

[mjwise]

Let's assume 90% validity, an overestimate almost certainly. 155000*0.9=139500 or about 140000 valid provisionals.

For Kerry to make a net _gain_ of 50000 on provisionals, they'd have to break 2.11:1 (67.8%/32.1%, or about 95000 to 45000) in his favor STATEWIDE -- that would be extraordinary. Keep in mind even by far only the hardest core dem county, Cuyahoga, managed to break like that on votes already counted. To see the WHOLE STATE go like that would be beyond belief. And even Cuyahoga has but 25k TOTAL provisionals!

[tatown]

"All-in, Kerry is likely to gain about 50,000 votes on the provisionals, cutting Bush's lead to about 85,000 votes"


Where does this come from??? NO ONE who has any knowledge of the actual situation in OH has suggested that Kerry will have any advantage on provisional ballots! Historically, these ballots mirror the actual results of votes already counted. Blackwell himself suggests that provisionals will favor Bush.

Additionally, where do you get "200,000 undervotes"??? These seem to be fantasy numbers pulled from!?!?

[mjwise]

Yup -- I'm in Toledo myself, it's one of the big dem strongholds of the state. That high rejection rate (>50%!) does not bode well for Kerry doing well in the provisional ballots race. You're not going to find 2:1 vote margins for Kerry in the rural counties!

[jveritas]

On election night Warren county reported that President Bush got 66,523 votes and Kerry got 25,399 votes ( source: http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos//results/index.html) and the provisional ballots in this county were 1453 (source: http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos//results/index.html). The provisional ballots and absentee ballots were not included on these early figures because they were not counted yet. So the margin without Provisional and absentee ballots is 41,124 votes in favor of President Bush.

On November 15 Warren county published their official tally that included the provisional ballots (source:http://www.co.warren.oh.us/bdelec/voting_results_publish_dynamic.htm) and the results were 68023 votes for President Bush and 26043 votes for Kerry and this include the provisional ballots and around 600 absentee ballots. The margin is 41, 980 in favor of President Bush.

So after provisional ballots and absentee ballots were counted in Warren county President Bush has a net gain of 856 votes out of approximately 2053 provisional ballots so the President was 70% to Kerry 30% in these type of ballots almost exactly the same % in the regular vote in Warren county Ohio.

[dagnabbit]

Look ! here are a bunch of ballot boxes which were mysteriously overlooked , and - Wow! there are 100,000 votes here - and they are all for John Kerry!

No kidding. There's nothing the Rats won't try, no matter how patently fraudulent. So long as the counting process is ongoing and Rats have some hand in it - there's still some danger.

[Wil H]

"it's not the votes that count, it's who counts the votes" - Josef Stalin

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

The usurper's plans are to get close with the provisional ballots, then use the recount to further manipulate the results. Once they get the chance to "handle" the ballots, and knowing exactly how much they need, they can make their run to flip the election. They have done this before, and almost succeeded in FLA 2000. This could be their greatest gambit so far. This bears watching.

[mysto]

Look ! here are a bunch of ballot boxes which were mysteriously overlooked , and - Wow! there are 100,000 votes here - and they are all for John Kerry!

If this were New Mexico instead of Ohio I might be worried, but a Republican Sec. of State is running the Ohio election. There won't be any stuffed ballot boxes full of votes from Mary Poppins and Kurt Cobain here.

[gopwinsin04]

Good point, I do expect massive fraud in the cities though..

[bobsatwork]

In the past, only 10% - 15% of the provisionals were invalid.....I didn't know this. Always thought most of them were non-registered voters, and most of the remainder were in the wrong polling place. I thought they'd throw out 80%. Oh, well...live and learn and all that.

[jveritas]

In 2000 Florida, the Democrats did two recounts in six weeks in the four largest heaviest Democrats counties and they were able only to cut President Bush lead from 1,200 votes to 537 votes.

Now what do you think are the odds that they can erase President Bush lead over Kerry of over 130,000 votes in Ohio?

The answer is: ZERO, an ABSOLUTE ZERO that is.

[TheGeezer]

Well, this year about 21% were pitched, as of this morning, anyway. That means about 125,000 votes can be counted, which, even if they went 100% for Kerry, would not flip the state.

There's an internet rumor out there that claims the Dems have joined a voter in a suit challenging the 93,000 spoiled ballots in the state. I think this ploy will fail, but if it does not, well I guess it's an open race again, eh?

It's so goofy, it's almost funny. And yes, we all wish it was over, and so does most everyone in the nation except the DU fanatics. This will really add to Democrat party suicide.

Keep the faith...