Rossi: 1,313,600
Gregoire: 1,306,376
That's a 7,224 advantage for Rossi...
This is going pretty much as predicted... Until King County spits out the results of their 46,000 uncounted absentee's (which would favor Gregoire by roughly 8,000 votes), Rossi will continue to climb up and up.
I'm still projecting a Rossi win and it's actually been creeping upwards, now I'm projecting Rossi will win by 4,490 votes.
The upward revisal from my first analysis simply means that the absentees thus far have favored Rossi even more than would have been expected from the Nov. 2 results. That's VERY good news.
And let's say there's 80,000 provisionals... assuming only 25% would be considered "valid", of those 20,000, Gregoire would have to take about 61% of those statewide to surpass that 4,490 Rossi lead. That's even MORE than Gregoire got in King County alone, much less statewide...
So I'd predict that even *with* provisional ballots thrown into the mix, it's still a 90% chance that Rossi will win this thing.
Adjusting, I still have Rossi leading by 3,699 after all the counties report, so we're still in the same range, showing Rossi winning.