Europe and Iran
President Bush, who has said that Iran cannot be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons, is likely to come under intense pressure in the coming days to agree to support some kind of nuclear deal reached by the European Union and rogue regime in Tehran. But there is good reason to be skeptical that such an agreement will actually end Iran's nuclear weapons program.
If recent history is any indication, a more likely outcome of the EU-Iranian talks would be some arrangement that won't prevent Iran from gaining such weapons but will provide a diplomatic fig leaf enabling the International Atomic Energy Agency at its Nov. 25 board meeting to postpone referring the issue to the U.N. Security Council. Mr. Bush should stand firm against such a flawed deal.
The Washington Post on Monday quoted unnamed American, European and Iranian officials as stating that the EU 3 (Britain, France and Germany), which have been trying for more than a year to persuade Iran to jettison its nuclear program, could produce an agreement within days. The deal would call for Iran to agree to a full suspension of its nuclear-related work. In exchange, the EU (in a move reminiscent of the Clinton administration's failed 1994 nuclear accord with North Korea) has reportedly promised Tehran a package of economic and diplomatic incentives along with a guarantee that it will not be referred to the Security Council.
But Iran has been demanding an exemption for part of the uranium conversion process which could move it closer to production of bomb-grade uranium. Such an arrangement would make it "too easy for Iran to conduct the next conversion step in secret," said physicist David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security.
Yet even if Iran were to agree to a full suspension, recent history suggests that it would likely violate such a deal anyway. Over the past year, the IAEA has issued at least three reports documenting Iranian cheating. One such report, issued last November, showed that Iran has been deceiving the international community about its efforts to develop nuclear weapons for almost 20 years. In June, two months after Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program, the IAEA issued a report suggesting that Iran continued to produce items that can be used to build nuclear weapons. In April, that report noted, Iran promised to suspend production of centrifuge parts. Two months later, while the centrifuge production had been halted at three state-run facilities, it continued at three private companies, the IAEA reported.
One should not completely discount the possibility that Iran could eventually decide, like Libya, to abandon its nuclear program. But the evidence available thus far — and in particular, its repeated violations of promises made to the EU 3 over the past year — suggests that Tehran continues to behave more like North Korea.
The Bush administration needs to carefully scrutinize any arrangement the EU reaches with Iran and be prepared to say no if it doesn't pass muster.
Last Update: 10/11/2004 14:45
Report: Iran admits to supplying Hezbollah with drones
?By Yoav Stern and Ze'ev Schiff, Haaretz Correspondents
A senior Iranian official has admitted that Tehran supplied Hezbollah with the drone that spent several minutes in Israeli skies in the north of the country on Sunday, an Arab-language newspaper reported Wednesday.
Haaretz reported Tuesday that Iranian drone experts from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards took part in the launch from Lebanon of a Hezbollah drone that spent several minutes over northern Israel this week.
On Wednesday, the Arab-language Al-Shark Al-Awsat newspaper, which is published in London, quoted a senior official in the Revolutionary Guards as saying that the drone was one of eight Iran-produced unmanned airborne vehicles that the country gave Hezbollah in August.
Iran also supplied Hezbollah with surface-to-surface missiles that have a 70-kilometer range, according to the report.
The official also said Iran had launched similar drones over Iraq to garner information on American military activity there.
The first launch of an Iranian drone by Hezbollah ended with the plane crashing on its way back to Lebanon. The drone apparently carried a camera capable of transmitting images while the plane is in motion.
The Hezbollah operatives were trained in the use of the plane by experts from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
The Iranian activity can be regarded as a clear-cut case of aggression against Israel.
What makes it unusual is that Iranian military experts from the Revolutionary Guards sent their people to a third country to act against Israel. They have usually supported Palestinian terror groups with money or weapons, but in this case, Iranians were involved directly in launching the drone and preparing it for its mission.
Lebanon also cannot wash its hands of the affair and pretend innocence. It is possible the Lebanese did not know about the activity and the preparations and did not know about the Iranian involvement, but since it took place on Lebanese territory, the Lebanese government is directly responsible for the act of aggression. Its arguments won't hold water if Israel decides to react to similar incidents in the future.
The drone was developed and built in Iranian plants in the 1990s. The aircraft is considered technologically very simple, with a pre-programmed route that is installed before launch. During the flight, a camera sends images back to a ground station, which was supposedly manned by Iranians, and the plane is apparently supposed to land by parachute.
One of the Iranian conditions for the supply of the drones was that Hezbollah get clearance from Tehran before any launch.
The launch and other military activity shows Iranians are in Lebanon, under the patronage and cover of Hezbollah, doing whatever they want.
Syria continues to maintain military units in Lebanon while Lebanon operates through the Revolutionary Guards and other bodies.
Lately, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has bragged that his organization can restrain Israel in the aerial sphere. He declared Hezbollah would change the aerial-military equation.
It is reasonable to assume he had received surface-to-air missiles from either Syria or Iran. Clearly, the existence of a few drones will not change the balance of power in the air with Israel, even if the drones can penetrate Israel much deeper, and even if they carry cameras or even explosives.
The drone penetration certainly surprised Israel's air defenses and lessons can be expected to be learned from the incident.
The Israel Air Force and its radar system should have no problem dealing with the Hezbollah drones and should set a price that Hezbollah and Lebanon will pay for such incursions.
Another lesson is that if Iran is ready to take the risk with such a direct involvement, it could slide into even riskier moves.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/499935.html
