60 is the magic number to get a floor vote on judicial appointments and I spent 2 hours on Friday thoroughly investigating this issue and there isn't any easy way around it short of a major Constitutional crisis. The smoking gun showstopper is Senate Rule V that specifies that all Senate rules of the present Congress are automatically applicable to the next Congress. Looking just beyond the specific issues of this Congress, I think it's in the best long term interests of our country's stability to preserve the Filibuster rule in the US Senate. I personally think it's a real gray-area-matter for Judicial appointments.
The Republicans would be wise to remember that the key will be to get 50 yes votes on confirmation and 60 yes votes to break a filibuster. I'd highly suggest that it would be in the best interests of the Republicans to "go easy" on the potential 10 RINO(s) and flexible Democrats who will vote YES on breaking the filibuster and NO on the judicial appointee. The key will be to make sure they are on-board for all the filibuster-busting votes in the future. If you piss them off then you'll only make them more likely to not be on-board when they are really needed. Just remember that it doesn't matter if a judicial appointee gets 50 votes or 100 votes as long as there is a floor vote.
Now if you don't trust them to keep their Senate seat then when their election season comes up, be sure to work effectively to help them be relieved of their job. But as long as they are a Senator who is willing to work with the President, they are valuable for the Republicans to keep happy.
Agreed, and their vote is also important way beyond judicial appointments -- on legislative matters such as social security privatization, making the tax cuts permanent, health care savings accounts, tort reform, and much more.
Both the cloture vote and the final passage votes are important. I don't give a damn how the moderates vote on final passage if they vote with us on cloture.
Tragically, too few around here understand how the Senate operates.