If you don't think Bush has to have Iraq primarily solved with troops being pulled out by the midterms, you don't understand politics.
I expect elections in Iraq by January 2005 and relative calm by January 2006. I expect us to still have troops on the ground in both Afghanistan and Iraq (and Qatar, Yemen, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Uzbekistan) by the time the mid-terms roll around.
And it wouldn't surprise me if we aren't fully engaged in the next country that harbors terrorists or comprises the axis of evil.
I'm getting a pretty good feel for politics, but I don't think the American voting population is going to let themselves be hoodwinked into thinking this should all be over in time for the next election.