The 51 percent nation [Barone Once Again Nails It]

US News ^ | Nov. 6, 2004 | Michael Barone

[conservativecorner]

Love is stronger than hate. That is the lesson of the 2004 election results. Millions of Democrats and leftists have been seething with hatred for George W. Bush for years, and many of them lined up before the polls opened to cast their votes against him--one reason, apparently, that the exit poll results turned out to favor Democrats more than did the actual results. But Republicans full of love, or at least affection, for George W. Bush turned out steadily later in the day or sent in their ballots days before. They have watched the "old media" --the New York Times, the broadcast networks CBS, ABC, and NBC--beat up on Bush for the past year, and they have listened to the sneers and slurs directed at him by coastal elites for a long time. Now they had their chance to speak. They did so loudly and clearly, giving Bush the first popular-vote majority for president in 16 years.

Browse through an archive of columns by Michael Barone.

The line among political insiders was that turnout would increase from 2000 and that higher turnout would favor John Kerry. Right and wrong. Turnout was up 11 percent, but Bush's total votes were up 18 percent from 2000, while Kerry's were up just 10 percent from Al Gore's. The Democrats relied on labor unions and billionaire-financed 527 organizations for their turnout drives. They depended primarily on paid workers, some of whom were very good and some very poor; one in Ohio signed up Mary Poppins to vote and was paid with crack cocaine. The Bush campaign built its own organization and relied primarily on volunteers, some 1.2 million of them. Volunteers were given varied tasks and numeric goals and were repeatedly tested. They delivered on Election Day.

On election night, most observers were focusing on central cities to see how many votes the Democrats would roll up. Working for Fox News, I concentrated on smaller counties in Florida, Ohio, and other target states in which all or nearly all the precincts had reported results. I found a clear pattern in state after state. In small and medium-sized counties, turnout was up, by 10 percent, 20 percent, even 40 percent in fast-growing areas, and the Bush percentage was up as well, by 2, 4, or even 8 percentage points. Aggregate those increases, and you have more new Republican votes than new Democratic votes in Cuyahoga or Broward counties. That, repeated over and over again, is the story of this election. Karl Rove's strategy of concentrating on increasing Republican turnout worked.

Media bias. Four years ago, I wrote that this was a 49 percent nation. In the 1996, 1998, and 2000 House elections, Republicans led in the popular vote by 49 to 48 or 48.5 percent; the 2000 presidential election was a 48-to-48 percent tie. Americans seemed evenly divided, mainly on cultural and religious lines. In 2002 that changed a bit: Republicans won the House vote 51 to 46 percent while Bush's job approval hovered around 65 percent.

This year his job rating has hovered around 50 percent or below. He has been the target all year of vicious and biased coverage from old media, many if not most of whose personnel saw their job as removing this scourge from the presidency. The 60 Minutes story about Bush's Air National Guard service, which was based on obviously forged documents, is only the most egregious example. Old media have headlined violence in Iraq and reported almost nothing about positive developments there; they highlighted the charges of self-promoter Joseph Wilson and spoke nary a word when they were proved bogus; they have given good economic news far less positive coverage, studies show, than they did when Bill Clinton was in office.

Yet the results of this election closely resemble the 2002 House results. Bush beat Kerry 51 to 48 percent; the popular vote for the House appears to be about 51 to 47 percent Republican. Voters knew the stakes--polls showed majorities thought this was an important and consequential election--and both candidates had plenty of opportunity to make their cases. Thanks to the 527s, more money was apparently spent against Bush than for him. So the results cannot be dismissed as an accident. We are now a 51 percent nation, a Republican majority, as, once again in America, love has proved stronger than hate.

[jocon307]

"Say, 250000 of them died between 2000 and 2004."

You are not accounting for others who would have grown up to take their place.

The dems in their current manifestation seem to have maxed. Kerry got 10% more than Gore, but that is right in line with the increased per centage of turnout, using this article's numbers, 11%. Bush got 18% more votes, certainly a 7% increase, allowing for increased turnout.

The only way to get new voters is to govern well.

We've still got SO MUCH work to do, a dem may work from sun to sun, but pubbies work is never done.

[FreeKeys]

Michael Barone is the co-author of The Almanac of American Politics. He knows his stuff.

[time4good]

Rush and others echoed what we all felt - as I told my wife: they hate Bush because he's a good man (in the moral and Godly sense). And we loved, admired and respected him for the same reason.

Brit has always relied on Barone as a straight shooter with incredible experience and insight into local and national electioneering. I noticed over the past year though that both he and Bill Samon of the Washington Times had remarked in amazement and contempt at the putrid hatrid the left and MSM have had for Bush.

But, when the Devil throws everything he's got at you and yet God has blessed you, you will prevail.

George W. Bush did.

[gusopol3]

go buy his most recent book as a thank you! That's what I did tonight-- Hard America, Soft America-- $22. If you get a chance, his c. 1990 book "Our Country" is a great read. I got the impression that he became Republican under Reagan.

[writmeister]

My understanding is that Michael Barone is a former Reagan Democrat turned Republican.

His biennial Almanac of American Politics is the seminal guide for understanding the statistics of politics.

[GSlob]

"You are not accounting for others who would have grown up to take their place."
Those would be genuine new young voters, who, if they were around in 2000, MIGHT have sat that election out, or they might not have done so.
So, I would group them into "young voters group" (with subgroups) for the purposes of research and motivation.

[Taliesan]

Barone got me through the night.

Amen. He was sterling.

[gusopol3]

nah-- the other guy, Richard E. Cohen, is the co-author. Barone is the founder, and has had at least one other collaborator through the years.

[Two Dawgs]

So, I would group them into "young voters group"

Did you see all of the young Republicans at the Reagan Building? Did my heart good to see lots and lots of them!

[PGalt]

Barone/Estrich on FOX NEWS on election night = Reason/Insanity

[fuzzy122]

"That is great, fuzzy. Everyone needs to watch it."

Many people came and heard Christopher in Northern Ireland!
HE GOT IT! SO DID YOU!

You watched and learned about KERRY'S TREASON!, and more.
And about President Bush's character and strength.

We spread the word!!
There was a link to a page I put together full of video and audio links.

"Stolen Honor" video clips are at the top.
The Swiftvets news conference on C-SPAN was there.

An interview of Steve Gardner (the gunner that served under Kerry) is next and then the SwiftVets.com ads

There are many other links.

I put together a page of info here about Kerry.

You armed yourself with ALL the facts. Then enlightened others - and spread the knowledge.

As a result we get Gloatfest 2004

If you have a few minutes to spend - check out my 9/11 memorial page and turn up your speakers to hear "Have You Forgotten?"

Disclaimer: I do NOT make any money off of my site.
It's just a place for me to play.
When I can, I try to help.

Stay Strong,
Fuzzy122

[prairiebreeze]

That link is hilarious! Gotta listen through to the end.

Prairie

[fuzzy122]

"That link is hilarious! Gotta listen through to the end."

You are very welcome!

Many people came and heard Christopher in Northern Ireland!
HE GOT IT! SO DID YOU!

You watched and learned about KERRY'S TREASON!, and more.
And about President Bush's character and strength.

We spread the word!!
There was a link to a page I put together full of video and audio links.

"Stolen Honor" video clips are at the top.
The Swiftvets news conference on C-SPAN was there.

An interview of Steve Gardner (the gunner that served under Kerry) is next and then the SwiftVets.com ads

There are many other links.

I put together a page of info here about Kerry.

You armed yourself with ALL the facts. Then enlightened others - and spread the knowledge.

As a result we get Gloatfest 2004

If you have a few minutes to spend - check out my 9/11 memorial page and turn up your speakers to hear "Have You Forgotten?"

Disclaimer: I do NOT make any money off of my site.
It's just a place for me to play.
When I can, I try to help.

Stay Strong,
Fuzzy122

[fuzzy122]

OOPS! Same page!
Sorry all...

[tiki]

This one's a keeper.

[riri]

I was in awe of Barone on election night. Now I know you all were too.

[Dont Mention the War]

I expect the margin of victory would have been much higher without the millions of dollars providing over 12 months of anti-Bush 527 ads. When I was in Florida last Winter, Moveon.org was advertising fast and furious.

They were advertising in battleground states right up till the very last day.

And of the 27 other candidates they endorsed (all for the house or Senate), only six won. Win rate: 18.5%.

But that's a lot better than the Daily Kos did. His group of goons pushed 15 candidates for Congress, and every single one lost.

[ChadGore]

bump

[SERKIT]

They have watched the "old media" --the New York Times, the broadcast networks CBS, ABC, and NBC--beat up on Bush for the past year...

Add in the 5%-15% of the influence by the MSM for Kerry, and if that group could have been convinced to vote for President Bush - given the facts, not lies - then the Bush margin could actually be 57% -67%.

[Timmy]

I had the same thought earlier tonight. We were on a church hayride and cookout, and I looked around at all the homeschooled kids who I knew had volunteered for Bush and had worked and supported his campaign. I realized we didn't do that in 2000, though we supported him over the odious Gore. I thought to myself that, in the end, we loved him more than they hated him. And that is why the increased turnout and his record vote.