Posted on 11/05/2004 3:10:37 PM PST by Ahriman
bump
An argument for Protectionism?
..but a look behind the numbers shows the same discouraging trend of the past four years. The U.S. economy can only create jobs in government and in areas of domestic services that cannot be outsourced or replaced with imports.
As one of the outsourced, I can say you better get used to it. I would NEVER advise a young adult to try to make a career in any of these fields -- computers, engineering, accounting. I don't know what the solution is, but I have trouble being optimistic about the future of the American middle class. The DIMs have less than a solution with their rules, regulations, and protectionism. I think the people in the Red states know this. But where will it all lead?
Took me 7 months to find replacement work, most is in India, and even now it's contract work.
Protectionism works: example is Reagan's quotas on auto makers, the one industry not outsourced. Russia is a good example too: 25% tarrif on auto imports, in the last 4 years 5 manufacturing plants openned up and Toyota is about to make 6. All for the Russian market only.
Sorry. I am not convinced.
With the national unemployment rate at around 5.5%, local (Hawaii) unemployment at under 5% and the evidence of my own lying eyes, I just don't buy all the doom and gloom about unemployment. My counterpart in California told me that they have two positions in sales management, one pays about $75K and the other about $125K plus perks and bonuses. Guess what; they can't find anyone to fill them (Mainly because none of the candidates are willing to move to high tax-high cost of living California). My own company constantly has vacancies in positions ranging from entry level to $50K or more (Flat rate technicians at $50K+ are a critical need). Our biggest problem is finding qualified applicants that can pass the drug test.
Everyone I know that has employees has the same problem.
Since the early 60's the continued automation of manufacturing tasks has reduced the number of high paying unskilled assembly line jobs.
Those that think the industrial assembly line jobs can be preserved are as foolish as the Democratic party of William Jennings Bryan who thought that agricultural jobs could be preserved.
This is a new century and those that think the Ford Motor, US Steel, and GM type assembly line jobs are going to remain going to be disappointed. The number of jobs going over seas is not that large. About one in 30 lost jobs goes over seas. The jobs are being lost to robots.
In 1972 automotive foundries employed iron pourers. Today robots pour molten Iron. Then men spray painted cars. Today robotic arms paint cars.
Anyone who thinks the days of unskilled assembly line jobs are doing anything except dying are fools.
The future belongs to the educated. The unemployment rate of college graduates is 2.9 percent. It is the uneducated who will suffer. There is no future for those who are not eductated anymore than there was future 80 years ago for those who could not read and write.
Nothing stays static for more than a couple of generations. As computerized automation continues it march the assembly line jobs will disappear totally. There will be new ways to earn a living. Those that want jobs will have to learn the new skills required. The value of an uneducated warm body will soon be gone for anything other than demeaning low paying jobs.
The clock can not be turned back. The secret to a prosperous future education .. learning new technology.
If you think protectionism works in over the long haul, take a look at Japan's lost decade.
For a guy who at one time understood that economies change and thus the mix of jobs continually changes, Roberts is sounding pretty weak.
"The secret to a prosperous future education .. learning new technology."
Or Identifying a need and serving it.
I wonder how many Freepers are in business for themselves and how many started up this year? I did, myself. So far so good.
Try sales, marketing, transportation logistics, publishing; heck, do you know what an automobile technician gets these days? A motorcycle mechanic earns $50K or more. Some of them earn a lot more. Of course, if you're tough enough, you can start your own business. The times have never been better for an entrepreneur.
And part of the reason why is technological advances and productivity improvements is making it harder and harder to justify adding manufacturing jobs.
May I suggest that blue collar workers get familiar with their local community college and bring their skills inline with the 21st century.
The secret to a prosperous future education .. learning new technology.
As long as it isn't also learned in India and China.
What area were you in before you got outsourced? If you're a COBOL or some other obsolete technology programmer, you can expect to get outsourced. I work with several Indian people and we have an offshore team. The management isnt real fond of them. They generally give the crappy grunt work to them. The Company is also looking to hire more Americans.
I tell you, Im a VB.NET programmer and I recently started looking for a new job. The only thing I did was put my resume on dice and monster. I've probably had 150-200 phone calls over the past three weeks with opportunities in Wisconsin, Utah, Louisiana, NJ, NY, NC, Ga and ALL OVER SoCal. If you're current, you can expect to find another job.
Try sales, marketing, transportation logistics, publishing...
That's right, jobs that either cannot be outsourced or that require face to face relationships or that are that require knowledge and familiarity with the culture.
China And Mexico Lost 22 Million Manufacturing Jobs In The Past 6 Years
Has it ever occurred to the "geniuses" at Newsmax that *everyone* has lost manufacturing jobs because computers and robots can do more and more jobs each year?!
Sheesh...
I hope that Bush administration realizes this. He will already help small companies with lower taxes and better health plans, but also we need more seed money...
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