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To: Ol' Sparky
CNN's exit poll showed Kerry beating Bush among Ohio women by 53 percent to 47 percent. Kerry also defeated Bush among Ohio's male voters 51 percent to 49 percent. Unless a third gender voted in Ohio, Kerry took the state. So what's going on here? Answer: the exit polls are accurate.

Here is where the problem with the argument he builds lies. Using the Exit Polls, especially the earlier ones, as the proxy for total votes is wrong. XP, when it's done correctly, is meant to see voters' behaviors and opinions. Not total votes.

In this year case, the problem is even bigger: the XP, esp. the earlier one, simply cannot be trusted.

11 posted on 11/04/2004 11:57:02 PM PST by paudio (4 More Years..... Thank you!!!)
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To: paudio

Look at it this way. Four years when they think they were snookered is going to seem a LOT LONGER than four years if they think they lost fair and square. :)


26 posted on 11/05/2004 12:04:16 AM PST by beckham
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To: paudio
Whoa - hold it right there. Michael Barone, Brit Hume and others have written that the exit polling data was a badly drawn sample. It was way off from the actual results that came in. Contra Palast, there was no organized conspiracy to steal OH from Kerry. The actual votes that came in came in the way they did and the exit polls were completely off the mark. Its too bad Palast can't bring himself to acknowledge the obvious: Bush won the Buckeye State's 20 electoral votes fair and square.
46 posted on 11/05/2004 12:19:10 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: paudio
Whoa - hold it right there. Michael Barone, Brit Hume and others have written that the exit polling data was a badly drawn sample. It was way off from the actual results that came in. Contra Palast, there was no organized conspiracy to steal OH from Kerry. The actual votes that came in came in the way they did and the exit polls were completely off the mark. Its too bad Palast can't bring himself to acknowledge the obvious: Bush won the Buckeye State's 20 electoral votes fair and square.
47 posted on 11/05/2004 12:19:26 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: paudio
Election night, Juan Williams told Brit Hume that there were going to be some conspiracy theories after the election because of the exit polls and Brit said you are probably right there will be some theories coming up.

It doesn't surprise me, they are not going to accept that the exit polls were wrong because they want to use the exit polls to try to prove that the election was stolen from them ...again!

They are wasting their time, what we conservatives need to do is start a grass roots movement to really reform the voting system state by state. No more chads anaywhere, pregnant or otherwise!

I read on another thread that some people don't want the electronic system and want paper so there will be a hard copy of the vote, maybe that can be done too, but we need to do something before 2008.

68 posted on 11/05/2004 12:48:37 AM PST by rotundusmaximus (1Kgs:19:18: Yet I have left me seven thousand in Israel, all the knees which have not bowed unto Baa)
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To: paudio
Exactly. He confuses the exit surveys which are created to determine voter profiles with the turnout model which is just a guess and, as we saw from the real results vs. those early exit projections, the turnout model being used was HORRIBLY off. He's using phony math and junk assertions to prove what he wants to be true.

What happens, and this guy doesn't get it, is that the surveys come back and then are applied to a mathematical model, a guess, of who's voting and when it's all over they're adjusted to mirror the *actual* voting so the networks and others can do analysis of the electorate's reasoning and demographics.

He's a sniveling moron and will never admit, like Michael Moore, some of the race hustlers and that kook and conspiracy wing of the Democrat Party, that despite all the funds from Soros, all the 527s, the MSM, the vandalism, the burglaries, the SERIES of "October Surprise(s)" and more, George Walker Bush won reelection.

And, did he ever stop and thing, if minority areas have disproportionately high "spoilage" that maybe, just maybe, if they embraced education and not hip-hop slacker values, their votes would be cast LEGALLY rather than ILLEGALLY? No, of course not... Democrats want to divine the "intent of the voter" via Ouija boards and channeling.

82 posted on 11/05/2004 1:12:27 AM PST by newzjunkey (San Diego Mayoral Race Fallout: http://rogerhedgecock.com/campaign2004.html)
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