Democrat's win in Cicero baffles both parties

Running for the Illinois Legislature usually requires renting a campaign office, setting up a political fund, sending out mail pieces and posting yard signs.

Democrat Michelle Chavez did none of that and still managed to unseat an incumbent House Republican from Cicero.

Chavez, whose run for town president in 2003 drew only 4 percent of the vote, beat first-term Rep. Frank Aguilar (R-Cicero) Tuesday by an improbable 53 to 47 percent margin, sparking talk of chicanery in a town famous for its murky, cutthroat politics.

House Speaker Michael Madigan's office, which maintains a tight watch on House races, said it didn't know anything about Chavez's background or even how to contact her.

State records don't show a single contribution to her, nor is there evidence of anything being spent toward her campaign last spring or this fall. Elsewhere in the state, individual House and Senate seats drew hundreds of thousands of dollars in spending from Democrats and Republicans.

"It's a mystery to us," said David Dring, spokesman for House Minority Leader Tom Cross (R-Oswego). "We believe Frank did a good job as a representative and lost to someone who didn't wage a campaign. I think that's highly unusual."

Stunned by Aguilar's unexpected defeat, some high-ranking Republican and Democratic observers questioned whether Madigan may have cut a deal with Cicero's GOP organization to pull support for Aguilar, giving the speaker a buffer if other tight legislative races swung Republican.

Her win prevented Madigan from losing two seats from his 66-52 House majority after Democratic incumbents in Peoria and Effingham lost. Because of Chavez, Madigan lost only one seat.

A Madigan aide shot down any suggestion of a behind-the-scenes role in the 24th House District. So did Chavez, who said her 20-year residency in Cicero and primary campaigns last spring and in 2003 made her known to voters.

"I'm not a ghost. I'm here, alive," Chavez said. "I know the people in Cicero. But nobody put me to run against anybody. The people who are talking, those are people I don't know, and they don't know me."

Aguilar, linked to the political organization of imprisoned former Town President Betty Loren-Maltese, sounded a conciliatory tone Wednesday, expressing no bitterness at the fact his brief political career has unexpectedly derailed.

He dismissed any possibility of under-the-table dealmaking and attributed his loss to long Democratic coattails by presidential hopeful John Kerry and U.S. Senator-elect Barack Obama, particularly in Berwyn Township, which Chavez carried. Aguilar narrowly won Cicero Township.

"None of the traditional political forces, neither Republican nor Democrat, in Cicero or Berwyn were behind her," he said. "The people of Cicero and Berwyn were behind her. That's the bottom line. That's where it counts."

Underscoring that point, Madigan spokesman Steve Brown said the speaker had been supporting a Chavez rival who lost in the spring primary and was not involved in her race against Aguilar.

Chavez, 53, is an administrative assistant with A & R Janitorial, a Cicero firm that contracts with the Chicago public school system and has donated to Democrats such as Madigan, Mayor Daley and Senate President Emil Jones (D-Chicago).

Cicero Town President Ramiro Gonzalez, a Republican who put Aguilar's name on his Election Day palm cards, attributed Chavez's win to hard work at the "grass-roots" level even though he could not recall seeing her campaign much in the west suburb. Chavez did not respond to a pre-election candidate questionnaire from the Sun-Times.

"It's great that she didn't have to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on a campaign," Gonzalez said. "Obviously, she didn't have the ability to raise that kind of money, and she still won. Only in America."

But a leading government watchdog said all of the explanations supporting Chavez's success "raise red flags all over the place."

"If you're going to put your name in the race, then one assumes you have something to say to offer to the voters," said Cindi Canary, director of the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform. "The idea there was no message, no communication with the voters at all, and yet the voters voted for her. This race does nothing but raise questions. Only in Cicero."

"Cicero always votes Republican in non-presidential elections even though the city is overwhelmingly Hispanic. Aguilar's loss to a nobody is very, very strange. I think someone in the Cicero GOP Machine wanted to run for the state house and Aguilar was blocking him, so the Machine quietly got voters to elect the Democrat who will be easy pickings next election."

I have no idea, since Aguilar was a freshman. If someone is trying to depose him on purpose, they obviously have little patience, but it all seems so ridiculous anyway. It could also be that the residents of that district voted a straight 'Rat line, and I'd have to see how the other races went in that seat (President, really).

"Where was Evans' district? There aren't very many state senate districts in Utah liberal enough for a Democrat to win."

In Salt Lake City. His win was a fluke, anyhow, and he didn't lose by too large a margin. But barring a disaster, it will likely remain in the 'Rat column.

"Wasn't there a second black GOP state legislator from Utah?"

I looked down the roster of photos, and didn't see any others.

"And what are the names of the other black Republican state legislators in the other Mountain States? I think there's a Senator Washington from the Reno area (who could replace Congressman Gibbons if he runs for governor in 2006) and maybe a second black Republican legislator in Nevada, a black state senator from Colorado Springs (once Hefley retires, he should run), and I think one other."

Sen. Ed Jones is the only black Republican I know of in Colorado currently in office. Same with Maurice Washington in NV (though whether he could get the nod for Congress is another story, he's had some ethics problems lodged against him). There is an African-American State Rep. in New Mexico, Jane A. Powdrell-Culbert, and she was just reelected unopposed. I know of no one else at the moment.

"I know there's a black state senator from Grand Rapids, MI who could replace Ehlers once he retires, and I believe that there are a couple of black Republicans in the NH state legislature. Are there black Republican state legislators in other states?"

To my knowledge, there is no more than 1 legislator in any given state. That includes (at the moment) AL, CO, FL, MI, MO, NV, NH, NM, OR, & UT. Whether we added to our numbers on Tuesday, I'm unsure about.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.