Posted on 11/03/2004 12:31:34 PM PST by furball4paws
I think it is time to look forward. Bush and his crew will take care of the "now".
I have some facts and some questions. I don't want to quibble over details, but I ask you to consider some questions that need answers now and cannot reasonably waity until 2007 when it will be too late.
1. As it stands now the democrat core is about 180 electoral votes. The core Republican is about 230 electoral votes. That leaves 120+ up for grabs. That has been the case in the last two elections. I don't see how it will change much before 2008. Yet it must or we will have another nailbiter and the lawyers will be drooling over the outcome.
2. 2 states have had the republican party implode over the last decade, IL and CA. That gives the democrats 76 ev without a fight. Clearly the republican parties in these two states need a lot of rebuilding. Maybe Arnold will help, but he is not really a party animal.
3. Other states seem to be slipping. I include MI, possibly IA and NM here. Now is the time to identify these "weaklings" and pump them up.
4. The key for democrats in 2008 will again be FL, OH, PA, IA and WI. They keys for the republicans are the same as this year and after last night we all know them, but to make the outcome more definite republicans must find a way to crack the upper midwest. The coasts are a dead zone.
5. Personally I think the major problem for the republicans and the democrats is to find good candidates. I honestly believe that Bush is not a strong candidate as much as I like him. I would have liked it to be Cheney/Bush and not the other way around. However the presidency would have probably killed Cheney by now. Kerry was clearly not as good as democrats could do. At the local level, we lost Colorado senate race because the party could not prevail upon a good candidate. The Beer man was not ready for the Big Time. We lost my congressional district because of a bruising primary and a weak candidate. We have a good chance to reverse that in 2006, but once in politicians gain new strength and unseating one is very difficult.
6. Although republicans increased their seant and house seats, getting judges passed is still going to be difficult. 2006 may be a high point unless we can find answers now.
I think we need to find a replacement for Cheney around 2006. I love the man but there will be a political vacuum in 2008 for HC to fill if we cannot find a "star" to groom.
The party needs to put the screws to people who may retire so they can plan and find attractive replacements for the next election cycle.
These are two of my suggestions and I would like to see others as well as other questions.
Help!
Upper midwest=rust belt=economy. If we could convincingly revitalize the economy there, most worries would attenuate and recede. OTOH, WOT is not going to be over in 4 years, not by a long shot, thus it will remains the issue for maybe 10-20 years more.
It worries me that Bush got 51% of vote, 55 million votes, yet only 286-EV.
The nation rising stars in the GOP, as of today, are Guilliani, Pataki, and McCain. If the demonrats nominate a moderate demo than the GOP would be in trouble in the South.
NJ, PA and NoVa were hit on 911, NJ and that part of NoVa voted for Kerry, I am not sure how Somerset Co Pa went last night.
What kind of republican can crack the upper midwest and would he (she) be acceptable to the established base? IOW how do we find a new Reagan?
The only person that comes to my mind would be, Gov Jeb Bush or Colin Powell. I would vote for McCain over Hillary but I would hold my nose.
How does one "revitalize" the upper midwest economies? Without turning your base against you? Does any existing and known republican have these answers? If so, who is he/she?
How does the crash of planes on 911 near N. Virginia and PA change people's politics. NJ is obvious and I think 911 had a definite effect on last night's returns, but NJ is too blue to turn on that one issue. BTW I think NJ is one place where the democratic party is in danger of implosion. That is the flip side of IL.
My point was that the people who lost more to terror in this country, still don't want to trust the President of the GOP.
I understand you view of McCain, yet he may now be the strongest, assuming his health is OK. This is another reason to groom someone now. Jeb might be OK, but I think the country has had its fill of Bushes. Powell might be a great candidate. His plusses are obvious. But he would be another Beer Man and I'm afraid he is not ready for the rigors of the campaign and the base would be unhappy with his moderateness. People talk of Rice and she could be good, but I think Powell and Rice need some real political experience before they get to that level.
"The only person that comes to my mind would be, Gov Jeb Bush or Colin Powell."
I've been thinking since Dubya's great success that his brother would be an excellent candidate to continue afterwards and build an FDR-like dynasty for years to come, given that we've changed the constitution to preclude Dubya from running himself for a third term.
No way in h**l would I want to see Colon Bowel, the affirmative action underachiever and grade-A idiot and screwup, running for President. Ever!
I would for Cheney to win!!!
So what do we need, a nuclear terrorist attack? What will wake up those who still think and not just react? Do you think Bush has done a good job "selling" the WOT?
No, and I wondered why with all the evidence of the Al Qaeda/Iraq links that they chose not to expound them. This to me would have been the reason they could have lost the election.
Do you think a third Bush would sell? He fits the mold very well. When he leaves FL I think it could become a difficult state to keep. Besides he has stated that he is not interested. Is he being coy?
I agreee. I know that Bush has to hold off on some information for security purposes, but there are still ways to make that information implied if not specifically known.
Nonetheless, A black candidate is one way I can see cracking the old rust belt outside of economic issues. Can't we find some and start grooming them now?
But when I do start worrying about 2008 ... I'm intrigued by Tommy Franks.
Saw him on PBS being grilled by Mark Shields, and he came across as articulate, reasonable, and winsome.
After the segment, Shields was obviously impressed and mentioned that Franks may be a future political star.
If he is pro-life and pro-marriage, he might be my guy.
Great, one vote for Franks. He's possibly a great choice. They should find a prominent place in the new Bush administration for him, if he wants it.
Yes, true politicos are one election cycle ahead.
Franks would be a good candidate. What are his social beliefs??? I don't know either.
The nation's demographics are changing. Right now, the nation is turning conservative, probably because the baby boomers are getting older and therefore more concerned about their future regarding retirement. Young voters are leading the conservative push however, because they are rebelling against their baby boomer liberal parents. The pendulum swings, remember?
2. 2 states have had the republican party implode over the last decade, IL and CA. That gives the democrats 76 ev without a fight. Clearly the republican parties in these two states need a lot of rebuilding. Maybe Arnold will help, but he is not really a party animal.
Uh, California has been liberal forever. You are somewhat more on target with Illinois, except, Adlai Stevenson is their native son, and that was in 1952. They have been Democratic for a long time. New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, all Democrats. California is liberal because of the great influx of displaced workers. Remember the dust bowl years? Ever hear of Okie from Muskogee? How about Grapes of Wrath? Your premise is sound though Republicans need to reach out to these states.
3. Other states seem to be slipping. I include MI, possibly IA and NM here. Now is the time to identify these "weaklings" and pump them up.
These states have had a strong Democrat organization for years. How else can Tom Harkin remain in the Senate? And Dingle from Michigan, and Carl Levin, two of the most liberal people in Congress have been there for years. I frankly find the glass half full, given Bush's strong performance.
4. The key for democrats in 2008 will again be FL, OH, PA, IA and WI. They keys for the republicans are the same as this year and after last night we all know them, but to make the outcome more definite republicans must find a way to crack the upper midwest. The coasts are a dead zone.
I wouldn't give up on Oregon and Washington. Both are traditionally Democrat but Bush gave them a scare. I also think New Jersey's corrupt politics is going to catch up with them. Remember, the Democrats had to pull a funny one to save their senate seat with Torrecelli's retirement.
5. Personally I think the major problem for the republicans and the democrats is to find good candidates. I honestly believe that Bush is not a strong candidate as much as I like him. I would have liked it to be Cheney/Bush and not the other way around. However the presidency would have probably killed Cheney by now. Kerry was clearly not as good as democrats could do. At the local level, we lost Colorado senate race because the party could not prevail upon a good candidate. The Beer man was not ready for the Big Time. We lost my congressional district because of a bruising primary and a weak candidate. We have a good chance to reverse that in 2006, but once in politicians gain new strength and unseating one is very difficult.
You might be the only one who would have liked to see a Cheney/Bush ticket. Reagan was considered to be a weak candidate, but will go down as the greatest president in the 20th century.
6. Although republicans increased their seant and house seats, getting judges passed is still going to be difficult. 2006 may be a high point unless we can find answers now.
I think it will be pretty easy to get a few Democrats to cross over. Daschle is gone.
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