The Sound of Inevitability

The Weekly Standard ^ | 11/3/2004 | Jonathan V. Last

[Syco]

THE 2004 ELECTION may not be over, but it is finished, and Wednesday-morning quarterbacking always makes results look perfectly rational. At every point in the campaign (save the first presidential debate) John Kerry was the candidate who had the embarrassing iconic moments: windsurfing, botox, fake-tan, Swift Boats, Mary Cheney, $87 billion, saying "fuck" in Rolling Stone, "global test," goose hunting. Every Dukakis-in-a-tank moment in this campaign belonged to Kerry. And when you lose a race, all anybody ever remembers are the Dukakis-in-the-tank moments.

So looking back, Bush's victory appears almost inevitable. Of course it wasn't. Had Kerry won, observers would be making the same inevitability argument: recession, net job loss, unpopular war--there was no way this faltering incumbent could have won!

The point is, few things in politics are ever really inevitable. And even with Bush's second term secure, there are a number of important open questions going forward.

The future of the Bush haters. Just a few days before the election, Michael Moore, the patron saint of Bush haters, issued an incredible proclamation in which he good-naturedly joked about Osama bin Laden's apparent affinity for Fahrenheit 9/11: "There he was, OBL, all tan and rested and on videotape (hey, did you get the feeling that he had a bootleg of my movie? Are there DVD players in those caves in Afghanistan?)"

Over the course of the last four years, liberalism's lunatic fringe has moved ever closer to the Democratic party's mainstream. Motivated by single-minded Bush hatred, these leftists coalesced around Howard Dean

and showered him with campaign donations. Powered by these radicals, Dean failed to garner even 20 percent of the vote in the Democratic primaries.

Nonetheless, the Bush haters attempted to hijack Kerry's campaign, and at many critical moments, the Democratic nominee gave into their mindset.

In the coming days, this fringe will make the case that Kerry lost because he didn't go far enough in attacking President Bush. The Democratic party will have to decide whether they want to tack toward the center, as Republicans did after Clinton won his second or give in to the Bush haters.

Deaniac Nation. Although he was the standard-bearer for the Bush haters, Dean has his own political future to consider. His embrace of Kerry was always pro forma. Even at the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Dean dismissed Kerry as being "only part of the solution" for fixing America's ills. On Election Day, Dean's Blog for America began with a post titled Dean, Man of the Year. The Blog for America did not mention Kerry until 7:47 p.m.

Will Dean stay on the Democratic reservation and challenge the Democratic establishment or head out into third-party territory? Will his followers stay with him or melt back into the countryside and drop out of politics?

The American Catholic church. The Catholic church dodged a bullet with Kerry's defeat. Had Kerry won, there would have been a showdown among the Catholic bishops over whether or not to deny Kerry the Eucharist. Whatever course the bishops would have chosen carried its own set of unpleasant consequences.

At some point, the Catholic church is going to have to confront the issue of high-profile Catholic politicians. Kerry's loss gives them the luxury of confronting it in their own time.

John Edwards. The first thought to come to mind when Kerry selected Edwards as his running mate this summer was, Why is he giving up on North Carolina so early? Edwards proved to be a fine choice as a party unifier, but performed poorly in his two big moments--the Democratic convention and the vice presidential debate. He was largely invisible during the final weeks of the campaign. He lost his home state by 13 points. And now, having given up his Senate seat, he sits with no political perch. What happens to his political aspirations now?

The Media. The mid-Election Day exit poll made fools of both the new and old media. The poll got the race spectacularly wrong--in John Kerry's favor. Now the exit poll may have simply been a statistical error which you would expect from the margin of error. But the history of the media's role in this race has been a consistent effort from many quarters to take down President Bush. From avoiding the Swift Boat story to 60 Minutes's forged document to the hyping of the missing explosives to the ludicrous claims of 100,000 dead Iraqi civilians, the media threw everything it had at the president.

Will they pay a price? Two years ago you could have predicted that the new media would play a large role in 2004, the first internet presidential election. But you would have been hard-pressed to predict exactly how big. It is impossible to predict now how that role will evolve over the next four years, but the old media's performance seems certain to increase the new media's power.

[Syco]

I thought this was interesting, and might be a nice diversion from this morning's slew of vanities. I don't agree with everything that he's saying (I think that the Democrat Party's implosion will be striking) but it certainly gives us some things to think about.

[Only1choice____Freedom]

From the Matrix - "Do you that Mr. Anderson? That's the sound of Inevitability. That's the sound of your death."

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

But the history of the media's role in this race has been a consistent effort from many quarters to take down President Bush. From avoiding the Swift Boat story to 60 Minutes's forged document to the hyping of the missing explosives to the ludicrous claims of 100,000 dead Iraqi civilians, the media threw everything it had at the president.

... And. FAILED.

My G-D, but how I'm savoring that, this morning. :)

[Only1choice____Freedom]

"My name is... NEO"

[Max Combined]

Yes, it is well written and well thought out. Thanks for posting.

[spodefly]

BTTT

[wideawake]

The Bush haters can't help themselves. Their next project will be to try to get the Democrats to orchestrate an impeachment proceeding against President Bush.

Since they don't control the House or Senate, it will be pathetic.

[Syco]

What exactly does BTTT mean?

[Syco]

I was at a party on Saturday night and had the unpleasant experience of getting cornered by a Radical Michael Moore loving Left Winger. His exact words were, "Bush should be impeached." Aren't they predictable?

[spodefly]

What exactly does BTTT mean?

It can mean many things to many people. We all interpret things in our own unique ways, influenced as we are by our subjective reality. Some people may interpret it as a way to Bump a thread To The Top. But this interpretation is subject to further interrogation. "Bump To The Top" of what, you may ask? Still others will interpret it as a placemarker to allow one to search back through previously read articles of interest. Some cynical persons may see it as an attempt to push a particular topic to the attention of the forum.

Personally, I intend for it to mean "Behold, The Total Truth."

[Bush2000]

I agree with you on this. In the 2000 election (and more particularly in the mid-term election), I felt that the Democratic losses would be the death knell of Terry McAuliffe as head of the DNC -- and possibly push the DNC toward the center. However, that didn't happen. The Democratic Party has been almost entirely hijacked by far left-wing interests that are way, way, way out of touch with American voters. They tried to talk about jobs, about supporting the troops, etc, but it was clear that their hearts simply weren't in it. Their "moderate" candidate turned out to be one of the most liberal members of the Senate. And, it seemed, the only qualifications that the man had for their endorsement were (a) his 4-month stint in Vietnam (which was disastrously promoted at the Dem convention -- and which was blunted by his consistent anti-war stance), (b) he was considered a "brilliant orator" (in contrast to Bush's down-home, folksy approach which connected with most Americans), and (c) the fact that he "wasn't Howard Dean". Nowhere did *anyone* talk about his Senate record; in fact, they ran from it. Terry McAuliffe couldn't cite a single achievement in Kerry's entire 20-year span as Senator from Taxachussets. You can't win elections with these dynamics.

The only way that the Democrats can stave off further losses are to dump Terry McAuliffe, move away from the liberal Clintonian legacy, and embrace the Great Middle. But it's almost certain that they won't do that. Hillary Clinton is their most prominent candidate for 2008. Democrats like "personalities". They want flash and glitz. Hillary Clinton will almost certainly be their nominee in 2008 -- and, while she has been quietly trying to build a hawkish reputation by visiting the troops (who, frankly, can't stand the b*tch), she's dragging a lot of liberal baggage with her. Her biggest challenge is retaining support from the left-wing lunatic fringe and also court the middle. But she has practically no support in the middle.

Consequently, I'm convinced that the Democratic Party is consigned to further losses. There are too many people in their leadership that have no concept of where America is heading -- and America is undeniably becoming *more* conservative -- not less. This bodes well for Republicans.

[Bush2000]

I agree with you on this. In the 2000 election (and more particularly in the mid-term election), I felt that the Democratic losses would be the death knell of Terry McAuliffe as head of the DNC -- and possibly push the DNC toward the center. However, that didn't happen. The Democratic Party has been almost entirely hijacked by far left-wing interests that are way, way, way out of touch with American voters. They tried to talk about jobs, about supporting the troops, etc, but it was clear that their hearts simply weren't in it. Their "moderate" candidate turned out to be one of the most liberal members of the Senate. And, it seemed, the only qualifications that the man had for their endorsement were (a) his 4-month stint in Vietnam (which was disastrously promoted at the Dem convention -- and which was blunted by his consistent anti-war stance), (b) he was considered a "brilliant orator" (in contrast to Bush's down-home, folksy approach which connected with most Americans), and (c) the fact that he "wasn't Howard Dean". Nowhere did *anyone* talk about his Senate record; in fact, they ran from it. Terry McAuliffe couldn't cite a single achievement in Kerry's entire 20-year span as Senator from Taxachussets. You can't win elections with these dynamics.

The only way that the Democrats can stave off further losses are to dump Terry McAuliffe, move away from the liberal Clintonian legacy, and embrace the Great Middle. But it's almost certain that they won't do that. Hillary Clinton is their most prominent candidate for 2008. Democrats like "personalities". They want flash and glitz. Hillary Clinton will almost certainly be their nominee in 2008 -- and, while she has been quietly trying to build a hawkish reputation by visiting the troops (who, frankly, can't stand the b*tch), she's dragging a lot of liberal baggage with her. Her biggest challenge is retaining support from the left-wing lunatic fringe and also court the middle. But she has practically no support in the middle.

Consequently, I'm convinced that the Democratic Party is consigned to further losses. There are too many people in their leadership that have no concept of where America is heading -- and America is undeniably becoming *more* conservative -- not less. This bodes well for Republicans.

[wideawake]

Yup. It's great to box a guy who telegraphs all his moves.

[Bush2000]

Ask him whether Bush was "selected, not elected" now. ;-)

[Syco]

Thank you for the clarification oh Wise One.

[Flashman_at_the_charge]

He lost his home state by 13 points. And now, having given up his Senate seat, he sits with no political perch. What happens to his political aspirations now?

Wendy's is hiring.

[mtbopfuyn]

"There he was, OBL, all tan and rested and on videotape (hey, did you get the feeling that he had a bootleg of my movie? Are there DVD players in those caves in Afghanistan?)"

Moore is such an arse.