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This is from a "Progressive Forum":

Count the votes!
It's not over in Ohio. As this email notes:Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221 If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number I've seen. And 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes. If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029. If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779. If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount. Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.Now Republicans will likely whine about lawyers and litigating the election and shit like that. Just note that Republicans are just as quick to resort to the courts when they feel the integrity of the electoral process is in danger.Democrat Brian Higgins is the expected winner in NY-27 with 51% of the vote (132,999 Higgins, 129,159 Naples), however a late night legal manuever by the Republicans will delay the victory as Republicans presented a restraining order to stop the counting of ballots in the race.Making sure the will of the people is represented, that every vote is counted, is paramount. If it takes lawyers and judges to arrive at a conclusive answer, then so be it.

'Don't Mourn, Organize' continued
Meteor Blades' piece is getting full, and not everyone's computer does well with 500 comment threads. Though I can't match his eloquence, I agree entirely with his sentiments. As bitter as the morning may feel, there will be things that need doing today, tomorrow and beyond. MB and I are both old enough to have lived through Nixon's re-election (and Reagan's before he became a saint)... and though the Dems will need to shake themselves up, so will a second Bush Administration, should it happen. And they and the media will need watching more than ever. The fading signs in windows and on cars says "United We Stand." That's true, whether in opposition or in victory. We knew the work was only starting even if Kerry won, and we knew it wouldn't be easy, quick, or final. It's still true, only more so. Life's work is never 'done'; there's always something else that needs improving. We'll have to revaluate our tools, our goals and our strategy (not necessarily in that order). That work begins today and goes on until we improve the outcome. Given this administration's track record, the need (and the openings) will be there.

'Don't Mourn, Organize'
OK. I read thousands of comments and dozens of Diaries last night and this morning. And you know something? I’m going to forget I read most of them. Just erase them from memory along with the names of those who posted them. Chalk them up to adrenaline crashes, too much rage and reefer and booze. Because what I found in my reading was a plethora of bashing Christians, bashing Kerry, bashing gays, bashing Edwards, bashing Kos, bashing America and bashing each other. As well as a lot of people saying they’re abandoning the Democrats, abandoning politics, abandoning the country. This descent into despair and irrationality and surrender puts icing on the Republican victory cake. Why were we in this fight in the first place? Because terrible leaders are doing terrible things to our country and calling this wonderful. Because radical reactionaries are trying to impose their imperialist schemes on whoever they wish and calling this just. Because amoral oligarchs are determined to enhance their slice of the economic pie and calling this the natural order. Because flag-wrapped ideologues want to chop up civil liberties and call this security. Because myopians are in charge of America’s future. We lost on 11/2. Came in second place in a crucial battle whose damage may still be felt decades from now. The despicable record of our foes makes our defeat good reason for disappointment and fear. Even without a mandate over the past four years, they have behaved ruthlessly at home and abroad, failing to listen to objections even from members of their own party. With the mandate of a 3.6-million vote margin, one can only imagine how far their arrogance will take them in their efforts to dismantle 70 years of social legislation and 50+ years of diplomacy. Still, Tuesday was only one round in the struggle. It’s only the end if we let it be. I am not speaking solely of challenging the votes in Ohio or elsewhere – indeed, I think even successful challenges are unlikely to change the ultimate outcome, which is not to say I don’t think the Democrats should make the attempt. And I’m not just talking about evaluating in depth what went wrong, then building on what was started in the Dean campaign to reinvigorate the grassroots of the Democratic Party, although I also think we must do that. I’m talking about the broader political realm, the realm outside of electoral politics that has always pushed America to live up to its best ideals and overcome its most grotesque contradictions. Not a few people have spoken in the past few hours about an Americanist authoritarianism emerging out of the country’s current leadership. I think that’s not far-fetched. Fighting this requires that we stick together, not bashing each other, not fleeing or hiding or yielding to the temptation of behaving as if “what’s the use?” It’s tough on the psyche to be beaten.Throughout our country’s history, abolitionists, suffragists, union organizers, anti-racists, antiwarriors, civil libertarians, feminists and gay rights activists have challenged the majority of Americans to take off their blinders. Each succeeded one way or another, but not overnight, and certainly not without serious setbacks. After a decent interval of licking our wounds and pondering what might have been and where we went wrong, we need to spit out our despair and return – united - to battling those who have for the moment outmaneuvered us. Otherwise, we might just as well lie down in the street and let them flatten us with their schemes.

One more thought
The more I think about it, the more pissed off I am that the networks are calling Ohio when the state is still clearly undecided. The odds may be slight, but this is Democracy. Let the fucking votes be counted. And if the votes say Bush won, then great. Call it then. But there is no reason to do so when the outcome is still so clearly in doubt.

Final thoughts (for now)
The networks have essentially called this one for Bush. There are still votes to be counted, and Kerry better not get it in his head to concede before all of them are counted. The networks won't decide this election as they did in 2000. Once the votes are counted, and the final result is determined, then we can talk about what we need to do. I've always said today was merely a battle in a long war. The GOP built its electoral dominance over 40 years by building a massive, well-funded message, training, and media machine. We started putting ours together last year. You all have much to be proud of. But please don't think your job is done, or that your hard work was all for naught. It's not, and it wasn't. This is just the beginning, not the end. Regardless of who takes that oath next January we still have a war to wage. We won't wage it with violence, but by building a solid foundation for a new progressive movement. Update: The margin in Ohio is now under 100,000 votes. This one is not over. Kerry campaign statement:“The vote count in Ohio has not been completed. There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted. We believe when they are, John Kerry will win Ohio.”Lawyers are heading out to Ohio to demand a fair count.

269-269
So far, no big surprises. Like I wrote below, we need surprises to win the presidency. Ohio is not out of contention, not as long as the urban areas (like Cuyahoga county) fail to report in. My brother, who has been crunching numbers all night (he likes math), makes a persuassive case that Bush will have a 20K lead in Ohio without absentees after all urban precincts report. The absentees would decide the race. Florida won't be called tonight, not without so many absentee ballots outstanding (1 million). I don't feel good about Florida, but those absentees are mostly from Dem areas according to MSNBC. It's not over. NH looks ready to go to Kerry. And early Nevada results look good. Same with the rest of the Gore states except for New Mexico. If we hold the Gore states, which is quite a reasonable assumption, and flip Nevada and New Hampshire, then we have the dreaded 269-269 results. But Ohio would be the big prize. Update: Nevermind Florida. It's been called for Bush. Let's hope it's been called prematurely.

Youth did not vote
MSNBC exit poll indicates that the youth did not vote. The 18-29 bracket voted the same this year as in 2000, while 30-44 group was down. That's what's killing us.