Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat - Thread Twenty-One

[callmejoe]

ACSA is not credible. Some aspects of the threat are.
Russia and Pak will not transfer in current environment.
DPRK might but is being watched carefully and warned as recently as last week (hence the leak of Clinton nuclear plans).

Issue is not state transfer, but non-state transfer.
Khan network had three major customers (though the network itself stretched over three continenets)- - Iran, DPRK, and Libya. There is mounting evidence that there was a fourth customer. Materials and components disappeared into a black hole. It is assumed it is another state (Saudi, Syria, Egypt, etc).

But it may not be a *state*.
The fourth "client" may be have been al Qaeda.

Al Qaeda is/was not just a terror network that state sponsors might have used as a "standoff capability", but served a dual purpose as a means of "offshoring" a global WMD acquisition/development network.

Nuclear acquisition/development has been a central purpose of "the base" from day one.

[Cindy]

Attackers fled...my opinion --- the Poles will find them.

[Godzilla]

Terrorism Summary 11/14/04

Ramadan is over, the threat alert has been downgraded in parts of the country, Yasser Arafat is buried, but expecting serious unrest in Israel as leadership sorts its self out.  However, other part of the world are being plagued by islamic terrorists.    Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.

Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW

1. Attack threat windows
11/14/04  Primary Window:  Available indicators suggest that there is no significant threat window to the US until Nov 24 - Jan 1 - Thanksgiving / Christmas Holiday season.

I am including an inauguration day nuclear threat issued by ACSA recently for tracking purposes. They have had a poor track record recently but I am to a degree trying to maintain an open mind as far as the group’s credability.

11/04/04 In a recent analysis, Ben Venzke, president of the private IntelCenter and a consultant to government counterterrorism agencies, said three bin Laden videos directly addressing Americans - in October of 2002, 2003 and 2004 - were followed between one and 53 days by attacks. Venzke said he didn't know why the videos come annually in October. None of the attacks was in the continental United States. Al-Qaida attacked a French oil tanker off the coast of Yemen and a Saudi housing complex in Riyadh after the 2002 and 2003 videos, respectively.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20041113/D86ASAO00.html

11/14/04 Secondary windows:  January 20, 2005 -  Presidential inauguration 
Feb. 6 Super Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla.

2. Attack Indicators
11/14/04 Jihadi chat traffic appears to be focused upon the US operations in Fallujah.  Some unknown groups have posted that they are going to attack the US but no time frame is specified.

3. Current Terrorist Operations

Iraq
11/14/04  Parts of Iraq are under martial law in support of coalition action against Fallujah.

Afghanistan   
11/12/04 Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar has accused the United States of trying to impose a puppet administration in Afghanistan and vowed to regain control of the country, a Pakistan-based Afghan news agency reported on Friday.

Israel
11/11/04 Israel Police went to their highest level of alert– essentially signifying a state of war - Thursday night, as preparations for Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat's funeral continued in Cairo and Ramallah.

Turkey
11/11/04 Turkey's military has begun preparing for what officials warned could result in a major invasion of neighboring Iraq. Officials said the Turkish General Staff has drafted plans for an invasion by at least 20,000 troops into northern Iraq in early 2005. They said the General Staff has urged approval from the government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and discussed the proposed invasion with the United States. "The current phase is to show the United States that we're serious," a Turkish government source said. "After the Iraqi elections in January, the Turkish military will be ready to move."
Validity of the source article is questionable - Godzilla

Pakistan  
11/14/04 Pakistan’s army has demolished several terrorist hideouts and killed 30 to 40 militants but failed to capture a former Guantanamo Bay prisoner accused of targeting security forces in a tense tribal region, officials said Saturday.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6475719/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6475719/

Kazahkstan  
11/12/04 A string of plotted attacks on America has been stopped -- and an Eastern European country is being credited with the break. Police in Kazahkstan have arrested more than a dozen people on charges of plotting attacks around the world. America was one of the biggest targets. Authorities confiscated weapons, explosives, computers, and fake passports from the group. They even found recorded speeches by Osama Bin Laden.
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/topstories/news-article.aspx?storyid=27576

Indonesia  
11/12/04 Armed pirates have struck three times in a week at one of Indonesia's main oil exporting ports, prompting the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) to issue a strong warning to shipping in the area.
http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/12/news/international/piracy.reut/index.htm

Thailand  
11/13/04 A bomb blast Saturday in southern Thailand killed an elderly man and raised to more than 30 the number of injuries in the nation's growing religious conflict. Besides the unidentified man's death, eight others were injured when the bomb ripped through a market in the predominantly Buddhist town of Tan Toh, in the province of Yala, the Voice of America reported.

11/12/04 On the worst day for the deep South of Thailand since the deadly Tak Bai events, three explosions injured at least 16 people, militants stole an arms cache from security volunteers and a martial arts teacher was shot dead in broad daylight.
A powerful bomb exploded at about 6pm at the Angmor Restaurant owned by a Chinese-Thai in Narathiwat's Muang (city) district, damaging the front of the restaurant and shattering glass as far as 30 metres across the street. At least 16 people were seriously injured. An hour later, another bomb went off at the Surin motorbike shop in Tak Bai, the district where the deadly October 25 crackdown on Muslim protesters occurred. There were no reports of casualties. Another bomb went off at a military checkpoint at 8pm in the province's Bacho district but no one was injured.
Assailants attacked villages in Narathiwat's Chanae, Bacho, Sukhirin and Rangae districts, stealing at least nine shotguns from village defence volunteers. A villager and two soldiers were injured during attacks in Chanae district.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/

Netherlands
Godzilla comment - Things here are getting ugly. Watch for addition incidents over the next few weeks.

11/14/04 The Dutch secret service has been infiltrated by an Islamic extremist linked to the killer of Theo van Gogh, the Dutch film-maker whose murder has accelerated Holland’s transformation from one of Europe’s most tolerant countries into a society increasingly polarised by fears about immigration. Intelligence sources said last week that a mole working for a terrorist group codenamed the “Hofstad cell” had been arrested on suspicion of relaying information collected by the authorities to its members.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-1358233,00.html

11/13/04 Dutch police on Friday raided a suspected Kurdish separatist training camp in a small village in the southern Netherlands, and several other locations arresting 38 people, the state prosecutor's office said. Police raided a camp site in Liempde where an alleged training camp of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party PKK was set up, according to Dutch authorities.
According to the authorities investigations revealed that some 20 people received "training to prepare for the armed struggle of the PKK in Turkey, by committing terrorist attacks".
http://www.wiesenthal.com/social/press/pr_item.cfm?ItemID=10040

11/12/04 The largescale anti-terror operation in The Hague, Amsterdam and Amersfoort on Wednesday thwarted a planned attack in the Netherlands at the last moment, Interior Minister Johan Remkes told MPs on Thursday night.
The seven arrested suspects belong to the so-called "Hofstadgroep", a network centered around the 18-year-old Samir A., who was arrested in July and is accused of planning attacks against targets such as Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam, the Dutch Parliament in The Hague and the Borssele nuclear power plant.
http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchannel_id=1&story_id=13908&name=Terror+arrests+%27thwarted+attack%27

11/11/04 Dutch government officials responsible for security announced that the government may close mosques if it considers them a threat to order. More money was requested for the security services to monitor suspicious persons and to protect endangered persons and property.
http://www.nol.hu/cikk/339616/

Bahrain
11/14/04 A message posted on an Islamic Web site claims that “suicide attacks” will be launched against Americans in Bahrain, including the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters, the Associated Press reported on Thursday. The statement claims to be from the Bahrain Branch of Ansar al-Islam, according to the report. The radical Islamist organization consists of Iraqi Kurds and Arabs who want to create an independent Islamic state in Iraq.
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=25477

United States
11/13/04 Police officials in Prince George's County, Md., say they are taking a very ominous threat against their officers very seriously. Law enforcement officials say they have received tips indicating that a violent street gang known as MS-13 may be planning to ambush and kill police officers."
http://www.officer.com/article/article.jsp?id=18410&siteSection=1

MS-13 has recently been linked to potential recruiting by AQ - Godzilla

11/13/04 The military installed its sixth and final interceptor of the year at Fort Greely on Thursday, but the ground-based, mid-course missile defense system has yet to be declared in working form. The 55-foot interceptors at Fort Greely, 100 miles southeast of Fairbanks, are designed to shoot down a warhead launched by an enemy missile from overseas.
http://www.news-miner.com/Stories/0,1413,113~7244~2532964,00.html

4. Attack method.
11/14/04  No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better.  With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used.  There are special concerns regarding the use by terrorists of the following vehicles:

1.  Uhaul type cargo trucks.
2.  Gasoline / Propane supply trucks.
3.  Emergency vehicles (ambulances, police cars, fire trucks)

There are renewed rumors regarding a nuclear attack by AQ but there is no reasonable evidence that they’ve acquired any yet.

5. Personnel
11/14/04 Nothing new to report.

6. Significant meetings canceled:
11/14/04 No new cancellations.

7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
11/10/04  There are no nationally specified areas with heighened security. However, NYC remains at an ORANGE status independently. 

GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.

8. Military operations. 
11/14/04 Carrier Battle Groups
Deployed 
CV-67 Kennedy 25 Jul 2004 - Persian Gulf
CVN-75 Truman 01 Nov 2004 - Mediterranean Sea
CVN-72 Lincoln Presumed western Pacific Ocean
Surge Ready
CVN-70 Vinson 02 Oct 2004 - Completes COMPTUEX
CVN-73 Washington Surge carrier until ~Dec04

11/14/04 F-117s are still reported to be deployed in S. Korea. 

9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
11/14/04 Nothing new to report,

10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
11/14/04 Nothing significant to report.

[Cindy]

Yep.

[DAVEY CROCKETT]

Pakistan campaign fruitful, but no bin Laden

Published Sunday, November 14, 2004
KARWANA MANZAI, Pakistan (AP) - On a strategic mountaintop not far from the Afghan border, soldiers man machine guns in dry stone bunkers and the boom of rocket and artillery fire occasionally echoes in the distance.

The Pakistani commanding general gestures toward the arid hills on the horizon where his troops have advanced in the last two days and makes a bold prediction: South Waziristan - a haven for al-Qaida-linked guerrillas who fled Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban - will be pacified by the year’s end.

But Maj. Gen. Niaz Khattak has another, more disappointing message - there’s no sign of the man that Pakistan’s U.S. allies in the war on terror really want him to catch: Osama bin Laden.

"So far, I have no indication whatsoever of Osama bin Laden. There has not even been a rumor Osama bin Laden is in the area," Khattak told reporters flown to the region yesterday by helicopter.

South Waziristan long has been regarded as one of the most likely hiding places for bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, although there has been no solid intelligence to support that. Khattak did not rule out the possibility they are here but considered it very unlikely.

Between 7,000 and 8,000 Pakistani forces have been deployed in a three-pronged offensive this week in the eastern reaches of the rugged region, the latest in a series of bloody military operations that have left at least 170 Pakistani soldiers and nearly 300 militants, including 100 foreigners, dead since March.

http://www.columbiatribune.com/2004/Nov/20041114News015.asp

[Lucy Lake]

Picture here:


http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1279861/posts?page=4#4

[Donna Lee Nardo]

I agree that it was the ubl tape that was the go. And as you always say: they will attack somewhere at some time. I paraphrased.

I find the new rumor interesting, but I can hardly believe that Scheuer will say something that the jihadis are awaiting to hear as their go signal. It sounds too conspirational.

Do you plan to watch 60 minutes?

[Quix]

THANKS, MUCH.

[Selene]

few weeks after iran is screaming "death to america" and is ordered to have 2 nukes ready by the new year, THEY SUDDENLY STOP THEIR URANIUM ENRICHMENT PROCESSES

The timing is suspicious

[Donna Lee Nardo]

I am from NY but I swear I didn't write that letter.

I am a Proud Infidel Crusader Dirty Kuffar Unbeliever Zionist Hireling.

:)

[Rushmore Rocks]

Thank goodness, I am one of the "frozen chosen"....(Lutheran)

[Donna Lee Nardo]

Thanks, Godzilla. We are lucky to have your status reports. They are so handy and easy to read at-a-glance.

[Domestic Church]

"I don't see
them allowing balloons or any other aircraft."

I'd be more concerned about the balloons in the Waldorf Astoria on New Years Eve. There have been so many missed opportunities.

[cmsgop]

Kinda Strange Pic.......

[Domestic Church]

Did you see Venus & Jupiter with it? They were aligned last week.

[cmsgop]

Nope , missed that.

[The_Reader_David]

Source on the picture?

[cmsgop]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/041114/ids_photos_ts/r3593800815.jpg

[Cindy]

No, I don't watch that show.

[Cindy]

http://www.newsmax.com/scripts/printer_friendly.pl?page=http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/11/14/202202.shtml

"CIA Agent: Nuke Attack Surely Coming"
Dave Eberhart, NewsMax.com
Monday, Nov. 15, 2004
ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Former CIA agent Michael Scheuer told CBS “60 Minutes”’ Steve Kroft Sunday that the U.S. fumbled 10 chances to kill or capture terror chief Osama bin Laden before 9/11. Now he is convinced that the international outlaw will attack the U.S. homeland with some sort of nuclear weapon of mass destruction.

"Their intention is to end the war as soon as they can and to ratchet up the pain for the Americans until we get out of their region. ... If they acquire the weapon, they will use it, whether it's chemical, biological or some sort of nuclear weapon," said Scheuer.



In his first television interview without disguise, Scheuer appeared most aggravated by a missed opportunity to level a hunting camp where bin Laden was holding court with several Arab princes.

“If they were eating goat with bin Laden, you know they were up to nefarious purposes. What were a few less Arab princes when considering 3,000 dead Americans?”

At one point, the gung-ho agent was dismissed from the bin Laden project at the CIA that went by the code name “Alec.” He told Kroft that he was considered “too persistent” and constantly lobbied his superiors about their “unwillingness to take risks.”

But after 9/11 he was brought back aboard."