Released: November 02, 2004Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm EST)
2004 Presidential Election
|
|
Electoral Votes: |
|
Bush |
213 |
|
Kerry |
311 |
|
Too Close To Call |
Nevada (5) |
|
Too Close To Call |
Colorado (9) |
Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%
The nationwide telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2
Here's how we got there...
2004: Repeat of 2000 Figures:
George Bush (Electoral Vote)
| UT |
5
|
KS |
6
|
| WY |
3
|
MS |
6
|
| ID |
4
|
SC |
8
|
| AK |
3
|
IN |
11
|
| NE |
5
|
KY |
8
|
| ND |
3
|
AL |
9
|
| MT |
3
|
GA |
15
|
| SD |
3
|
LA |
9
|
| OK |
7
|
TX |
34
|
|
John Kerry (Electoral Vote)
| ME |
4
|
MD |
10
|
| VT |
3
|
CT |
7
|
| IL |
21
|
HI |
4
|
| RI |
4
|
NY |
31
|
| DE |
3
|
MA |
12
|
| NJ |
15
|
DC |
3
|
| CA |
55
|
|
|
|
|
Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142
|
Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172
|
2004 Battleground States:
|
|
2000 |
2004
Our Call |
Bush Electoral Votes |
Kerry Electoral Votes |
|
%Margin |
%Margin |
|
|
|
Arizona (10)* |
Bush + 6.28% |
Bush 6% |
10 |
- |
|
Arkansas (6)* |
Bush + 5.44% |
Bush 3% |
6 |
- |
|
Colorado (9) |
Bush + 8.36% |
Too Close To Call |
- |
- |
|
Florida (27) |
Bush + 0.01% |
Kerry .1%
Trending Kerry |
- |
27 |
|
Iowa (7) |
Gore + 0.31% |
Kerry 5% |
- |
7 |
|
Michigan (17) |
Gore + 5.13% |
Kerry 6% |
- |
17 |
|
Minnesota (10) |
Gore + 2.4% |
Kerry 6% |
- |
10 |
|
Missouri (11)* |
Bush + 3.34% |
Bush 3% |
11 |
- |
|
Nevada (5) |
Bush + 3.55% |
Too Close To Call |
- |
- |
|
New Hampshire (4) * |
Bush + 1.27% |
Kerry 5% |
- |
4 |
|
New Mexico (5) |
Gore + 0.06% |
Kerry 3% |
- |
5 |
|
North Carolina (15)* |
Bush + 12.83% |
Bush 3% |
15 |
- |
|
Oregon (7)* |
Gore + 0.44% |
Kerry 10% |
- |
7 |
|
Ohio (20) |
Bush + 3.51% |
Bush 2%
Trending Kerry |
- |
20 |
|
Pennsylvania (21) |
Gore + 4.17% |
Trending Kerry |
- |
21 |
|
Tennessee (11)* |
Bush + 3.86% |
Bush 4% |
11 |
- |
| Virginia (13)* |
Bush + 7.00%
|
Bush
|
13
|
-
|
|
Washington (11)* |
Gore + 5.58% |
Kerry 11% |
- |
11 |
|
West Virginia (5)* |
Bush + 6.32% |
Bush 4% |
5 |
- |
|
Wisconsin (10) |
Gore + 0.22% |
Kerry 6% |
- |
10 |
|
Battleground State Totals
|
71
|
139
|
|
Current Grand Total:
|
213
|
311
|
* States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys.(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm EST)
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