There is nothing wrong with being optimistic, but the data coming in is not favorable to W. Forget Florida -- Bush might win it, but Florida is not the swing state this time around. As I've pointed out in discussions here before (contrary to the opinions of many here who disagreed), this race comes down to who wins Ohio. The winner of Ohio wins the whole thing.
I pointed out here a few days ago that private polls taken in Ohio were showing Kerry would win Ohio. That's exactly what we are seeing. Kerry will win Ohio. At this moment, only 10 percent of Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)--Kerry leads 60 to 39 percent there so far. Only 60 percent of Lorain County has reported so far -- 53 to 46 percent Kerry leads. In Lucas County, only 6 percent has reported, and Kerry leads there 71 to 29 percent. In Summit COunty, only 11 percent has reported, and Kerry leads there 59 to 41 percent. In Trumbull County, only 67 percent has reported, and Kerry leads 62 to 38 percent.
Even more troublesome, in conservative Franklin County, Kerry and Bush are tied, and in Montgomery County, Kerry leads 51 to 48 percent. Not good for Bush.
There are still polling places open in Ohio, and they won't close until probably midnight. These are primarily in Democratic-controlled areas.
All of the above is exactly consistent with the private polling data I've mentioned here.
Ohio will go to Kerry, as will Pennsylvania. That pretty much seals the overall election.
thank you for the doom and gloom post
That's the critical stat. Duh. We won in 2000, we only need to do as well. From what I read, we beat projections.
Jay Cost is comparing 2004 results with 2000 results, and most of the results in Ohio are favoreable this year compared to 2000, plus he has a 3.5% margin to work with.
Buckeye...what is your take on this?
From Kerryspot
BUSH EXCEEDING PERFORMANCE IN CERTAIN OHIO COUNTIES [11/02 11:18 PM]
Jim Irvine, head of Ohioans for Concealed Carry has been working with the Bush campaign. He points out that Bush is exceeding how he performed in Cuyohoga County in 2000, and reports from the state's outlying counties are that Bush exceeded his 2000 performance there.
Winning Ohio is starting to look difficult for John Kerry.
UPDATE: I am told that MSNBC is reporting that the Cleveland vote is not looking strong enough for Kerry - the black turnout not high enough and too pro-Bush because of gay marriage issue.
Kerry Spot reader Andy observes, "Old rule was we had to lose Cuyahoga by no more than 100,000. Voinovich's blowout helped Bush there."