Max prov votes = 175,000(trend given by sec of state). Margin at the moment is 139,000. Assume MPV are 100% good and the Bush margin remains at 139,000 x + x + 139,000 = 175,000 2x = 36,000 x = 18,000 which means that Kerry must get 157,000 out of 175,000 MPV(90%). This also precludes Bush getting any differential from absentee votes. Kerry is in Cambodia on Christmas.
139/175 = 80%.
Your math is compelling. Wonder why NONE of the networks have anyone who can do these computations. NONE can be even bothered to report the votes. Suddenly CBS doesn't even present the vote totals in Ohio anymore. They only say there are provisional ballots yet to be counted. Why don't you show the vote margin in Ohio, CBS?