Posted on 11/02/2004 9:18:35 AM PST by doug from upland
Put info and links about Colorado here.
Zogby when asked about his Colorado numbers has said publicly he doesn't have faith in them. They are junk.
C'mon Colorado pull Coors across the finish line!
I saw only one of the "army" of young people, a twenty-something blond who was so clueless she had no form of ID and was sent away.
No Republican judge but the judges were strictly enforcing the ID requirement.
Anecdotally, turnout sounds heavier in the pubbie precincts.
Quick! Get that FReeper a nice cold Coors!
You guys are certain? I was just playing around with the vote map... In any case, we can lose Colorado and still win with Ohio and Florida.
I've had my B/C sign stolen and my VRWC truck vandalized.
But, there are a lot of closet Conservatives in my neighborhood. We're just out numbered.
Friday, October 29, 2004
2002 Poll Biases Suggest Coors Victory
The final polls are out in the Senate race, and we again have great disparity among the different surveys, as we did two years ago for the Wayne Allard-Tom Strickland showdown. In the final election weekend polling of 2002, the Post had Strickland up by 1, the Rocky Mtn News had Strickland up by 5, and Zogby had Strickland up by 9. The final result? Allard 50, Strickland 45. That means the Post undercounted the GOP candidate by 6 points, the Rocky by 10 points, and Zogby by an atrocious 14 (but Zogby's reputation for state polling is notoriously bad).
Today, looking at a comparable snapshot of the race between Ken Salazar and Pete Coors, Zogby has Salazar leading by 9, the Rocky (Public Opinion Strategies) has Salazar leading by 6, and the Post (Mason-Dixon) shows the candidates knotted at 46. Factoring in the same biases that affected Colorado pollsters in 2002, the results of the election could be forecast as follows:
Zogby: COORS +5 (Salazar +9, net GOP gain of 14)
Rocky: COORS +4 (Salazar +6, net GOP gain of 10)
Post: COORS +6 (TIE, net GOP gain of 6)
Average: COORS +5
If this model holds true, Coors will win by the same margin that Allard did two years ago. But it will only happen if the Republican GOTV effort does its job. And believe me, it's looking strong.
The key difference between the two years, of course, is who is at the top of the ticket. In 2002 it was the governor's race, and Bill Owens won convincingly. The Dems fielded a weak candidate. Colorado is going for President Bush this year, but it figures that some more Dems will come out to vote against him. So I think it's safe to add that handicap to the average posted above. My prediction? Coors wins by 2 to 3 percentage points.
One final note I can't repeat often enough: predictions don't come true if you don't vote, if you don't volunteer for the 96 Hour Victory Team to ensure that every possible supporter of our side gets out and votes.
The only one of the polls with any internals available is the Denver Post. It looks like their balance of party sample (using a model of 37% GOP, 33% Independent, 30% Democrat) is very close to the actual. The Rocky Mountain News wouldn't release their internals because of "proprietary" issues.
I'd just DIE if there were a W Victory Parade right down the center of Boulder this weekend.
We should start organizing one, helmets and body armor should be mandatory.
And, of course, open/concealed carry....
We're going to get Colorado--I just pray that Coors can keep that Senate seat for the Republicans!
BUMP!
Any other voting tales?
VOTE and we will win.
I voted at 8:30 this morning in Westminster. I was number 98 and waited less than five minutes. However, there was a second district in the same location that had an hour long line.
So, how do you know which of the poll workers were R or D? I did not see any stickers or other identifying markers on anyone?
Daughter just emailed. Stood in line for THREE hours to vote in Denver this morning.
From The Corner at NRO:
FROM COLORADO [John J. Miller]
A well-placed source: "Going into Election Day, Republicans had a 76,000 voter advantage in early voting and absentees turned in. To mobilize the vote, there have been 6,000 volunteers on the streets who knocked on 550,000 doors. Republicans have poll watchers heavily deployed today. And the President looks to be headed to a 5 or 6 point win. Even if the unaffiliateds break for Ken Salazar, this is a great hand for Pete Coors to be holding going in. Will be tight, but if the GOTV works the way it did in 2002, and there's no indication that it won't, Pete should make it thru. AND, we had a great snowfall yesterday, so spread the word to conservatives to come ski and celebrate a big win! "
We're in Colorado Springs and it is beautiful and sunny.
I couldn't tell ya if it's beautiful or sunny. I'm working.
From The Corner at NRO:
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REPORT [John J. Miller]
An insider with Bush's Colorado campaign: "We expect to win by 5 or 6 points. Coors will trail and will have a long night but victory is definitely still possible."
Posted at 04:15 PM (2:15 pm Mountain Time)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.