Isn't Mellman Kerry's pollster?
As to Nadar, Badnarik, and Peroutka's totals. Remember, there are enough loons to go around.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
Posted on 11/02/2004 7:28:29 AM PST by ambrose
DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER PREDICTS BUSH VICTORY [Cliff May]
“We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime.”
The quote above is from Mark Mellman. Mark is a Democratic pollster. And he’s very partisan. And he’s been working for Kerry this year.
But Mark is no fool and he has a reputation to maintain.
He explains his reasoning at some length in a column in The Hill this morning. He predicts that Bush will get 51.6% of the two-party vote.
By contrast, Jay Cost is predicting Bush will get less than that: 48.63% to Kerry’s 46.24%. Posted at 10:12 AM
I don't know what reputation this stooge has to maintain. He told Stewart Varney, "You are insane!" This happened on one of the Saturday AM FOX business shows a couple months ago. Varney seemed less than pleased...But I hope he is correct-GWB wins!
So Jay Cost thinks that Nader, Badnarik, and Peroutka will get 5% between them??
Mark is a mjor Rat dick.
This is great news. A few days ago Mark was predicting a Kery victory:
Just like 2000, the polls are off (Barf alert)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1262768/posts
A 2% victory for W. will be a BIG victory.
48.63% to Kerry’s 46.24% ?
If they're going to make a prediction, they're numbers should add up. Nader won't get 5+%
So five percent will vote third party or undecided?
I voted in NH and there was no Libertarian on the ballot.
Isn't Mellman Kerry's pollster?
As to Nadar, Badnarik, and Peroutka's totals. Remember, there are enough loons to go around.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
My prediction B52/K47. Major league landslide and an early night.
http://hillnews.com/mellman/110204.aspx
Taking all that and more into account, an expert forecasting model suggests that Bush will get 51.6 percent of the two-party vote.
So while Bush faces formidable obstacles, not the least of which is Kerry himself, the senator also faces a strong candidate. Bush is weaker than some other incumbents but much stronger than those who have been defeated.
You soon will know whether Kerry’s appeal was strong enough to overcome the incumbent’s strength. I think I will be smiling broadly. But it has been an uphill fight.
Yes, I recall reading somewhere that Mellman did Kerry's private polling.
Apples and oranges. Mellman is giving the percentage of the two-party vote (ignoring those cast for minor party candidates) whereas Cost is giving the percentage of all votes.
This is just his final poll average....he has not weighted nor allocated undecideds
IhopeIhopeIhopeIhopeIhopeIhopeIhopeIhopeIhopeIhopeIhopeIhope
Assuming minimal voter fraud.
Drudge is reporting 2,000 votes already on some PA machines this morning before the polls opened.
Bush: 48.63%
Kerry: 46.24%
MOE: +/- 0.9%
were just his average of polls that he thought were quality polls. He predicted Bush 51-47.3
But only because the Democrat party isn't our only opponent.
We're fighting the mainstream media, as well.
Otherwise, it would've been a cakewalk...
Its amazing when their paychecks are on the line, Democratic pollsters and activists suddenly discover reality.
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