UK Bookmakers Predicting Bush Win 11-2-2004

Real Clear Politics.com ^ | 11-2-2004 | Real Clear Politics

[FrankRepublican]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Markets.html

[FrankRepublican]

The eight UK bookies listed on Real Clear Politics are predicting a Bush win. Recent elections they picked were Arnuld and John Howard (conservative) in Australia. The polls said the Aussie election was a dead heat and some said Howard was finished. Howard won in a landslide. Kerry's sister campaigned for Howard's (losing & liberal) opponent.

Bookmaking is a huge global business and the Brits have been doing it for a long time. You can go down to your corner shop in the UK and place a bet on almost anything. I am not a gambling supporter but the business is highly sophisticated - i.e. these guys are better & smarter than pollsters. If they are wrong - they quickly go out of business.

The futures markets are also still predicting a Bush win. The futures markets also outperform pollsters.

[DSBull]

I for one would bet all of FrankRepublican's money on a Bush Win.....

Bush will certainly win, for the good of the nation.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

I'm looking for a new mutual fund manager...

[Puppage]

Bush will certainly win, for the good of the nation

For the good of the world & mankind, IMHO.

[KrazyEyezKillah]

Consensus of 99% of the world=W. wins the election
Consenssus of NYTimes newsroom, NPR, DU, CNN, etc. = Too close to call

Results dispirited Dem voters. Charged up Republicans. Substantial Bush win that exceeds the "margin of lawyer" required to defeat democrats.

[pabianice]

Tradesport Final:

PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 54.9

PRESIDENT.KERRY2004 45.0

BUSH.FLORIDA 55.7

BUSH.MINNESOTA 23.0

BUSH.OHIO 58.7

BUSH.ELECTORAL +300 25.1

BUSH.POPULARVOTE 54.8

SENATE.SD.DASCHLE 39.0

[Rokke]

I think Tradesports is still trading Bush/Kerry. But it is looking very good for Bush.

[traderrob6]

Final? i thought they traded untill a winner was final

[thecanuck]

Also interesting to see the Iowa markets turn around sharply. Last night they flipped to Kerry but this morning have moved back decisively to Bush. I put more credence in Tradesport because of it volume but its telling that people putting money down are moving to Bush.

[RightthinkinAmerican]

It's raining in Columbus and Cleveland todays boyz! Apt to rain all day there.

[Sooth2222]

IEM vote share market back to 51.3% asking for Bush this morning. Someone musta dumped a bunch of Bush contracts last night.

I'm not too convinced of the accuracy of Tradesports odds this time around, since they probably reflect the sentiment of European gamblers.

[thecanuck]

"..since they probably reflect the sentiment of European gamblers."

All the more reason to be optimistic. They have Bush up by 10 at this point despite all the negative press and anti-Bush sentiment.

[TexasLeafer]

Also, Kerry's numbers in tradesports.com are probably boosted by hedge betters such as myself. (Though I suppose Democrats could be doing the same with Bush.)

I took out 100 Kerry contracts on tradesports.com to help console me if the unthinkable should happen tonight. Probably won't cover the increase in my tax bill, but still...

[RightthinkinAmerican]

I have incredibly sh!tty luck with stocks or gambling. I thought about betting on Kerry just to jinx his a$$.