More likely the latter than the former I think. However, if he says Bush has an 8 point overall lead, that doesn't really tell us anything about the state-by-state results. You know Bush is doubling up Kerry in Texas, Oklahoma, and a few other state. But Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin etc. - that's what's really important.
Yeah...and deep blue, early voting California has more people in it than Texas and Oklahoma combined, the entire blue state of Oregon is early voting by mail, etc. It cuts both ways.
I remember hearing Dick Morris after the 2000 debacle. (I hope I remember these numbers correctly.) He said that the electoral college can be won by one man, and the popular vote another, but it was extremely unlikely that it could happen with more than a 1 1/2% difference.
In other words, if Bush goes over 2%, it would be highly unlikely to lose the electoral college. This was a statistical analysis. Of course, nothing about this election is usual or ordinary. But if Bush wins by a number near 8%, I don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell Kerry can put the states together for an EV win.