I know Tennessee and Texas have early voting and I would expect they would weight toward GW heavily. I know Oregon is in this and would weight heavily to Kerry. What other states that are strongly partisan for Kerry or Bush might be skewing these results?
I don't know however 30 states have early voting. I imagine a few of those are strong Kerry states to balance out the Bush states.
California, Washington, and Michigan for Kerry; Georgia, Colorado, Louisiana, Arizona, and North Carolina for Bush. More red states than blue states have early voting, but the blue states have lots more people. California alone has more people than Texas and Georgia combined, while Washington cancels out Tennessee and -- again -- the entire state of Oregon votes early. Michigan cancels out Louisiana.