The Polls Are Always Right!
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Posted on 11/01/2004 8:56:58 AM PST by Jewels1091
Four percent of the electorate do not change their mind in one day. Halloween weekend polling. Saturday and Sunday. It's tight, but Kerry is not leading.
This you believe...but not the Newsweek poll. Amazing
Are the American people actually so unstable that they change their minds about who they want as President every 15 minutes or so?? GOD HELP US!
The polls are all over the place. Newsweek, Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen all would indicate a Bush landslide. Zogby indicates a Kerry landslide and Fox a Kerry win.
Since when? They had Bush up by six and most people didnt believe that as it was the only poll showing a big difference.
The sample has been screwed at least for a few days, so now they're adding a Halloween night sample in on top of it. Polls from yesterday are going to be so skewed that anything coming out today will be jacked. The last day of the tracking polls that can be trusted is Saturday's update.
Single day overnights tomorrow may be useful.
The poll was Oct 30-31, but yet they ignored that and said 'if the vote was today ...'. They need to point out to the viewer that this is a weekend poll that traditionally always make Dem's look better, and they know that.
This is what I said 20 minutes before the poll came out:
Two day rolling average with both days being on the weekend and Sunday being a holiday. Place you bets, and bet heavily on a result that looks bad for Bush.
But keep in mind - just like you get with any other sampling - bad data equals bad data out.
The pool from which this sample will be skewed by the weekend and holiday effect.
Granted I would rather it come out showing us ahead. But if doesn't I don't think anybody should panic.
Thank you, somerville. My point exactly. In my opinion, Fox just jumped the bias wagon. It's completely obvious where they stand in regards to how the reporters are reporting it. Words like, "exciting. The race is tied." All in breathless, orgasmic anticipation, tell me what I need to know.
I have faith in the American people and it will be validated tomorrow. Thank you for that.
Every two day weekend poll is loaded with liberals. This trend was predicted. Todays numbers will tell us what is really going on.
Zogby has Bush up and Fox down.
Nope, It's Fridays poll.
Dirty little secret: CBS polls are more reliable than Fox News. It's true. Except for Reuters/Zogby, the reliability of the poll doesn't necessarily track with the reliability of the news organization that pays for it. Newsweek polls are usually bilge, but their internals look suspiciously reasonable this time around. I stopped paying attention to the polls on Oct. 29. Anything released after then has weekend numbers.
Since today, 11/01/2004
The Polls Are Always Right!
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FOX's poll shows Kerry leading among men. I find that hard to believe.
Exactly right; those of you who are panicking need to read these wise words. This morning, Gallup and Zogby published battleground state polls that showed Kerry and Bush winning in EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE STATES. Take heart.
Well, the MSM media will be crowing about this one...although they ignore Fox News the rest of the time.
I hope some smart FReeper can give us an objective view on the internals of this one.
Newsweek poll is from Friday.
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