I personally trust Mason-Dixon for state polling over any other organization, including Gallup.
Okay. I do, too. Still, any thoughts about how good Gallup is in their state by state polling? For example, their last two polls in Florida were Bush +8 (taken 10/21-10/24) and Kerry +3 (taken October 28-30), both taken in the span of a single week. I mean, not too long ago I was ripping Zogby for such wild swings, but I really don't expect it of Gallup. And in between these two Gallup polls is the Mason Dixon poll, taken October 26 to 29, showing Bush +4.
I hope I am not being overly optimistic, but it may very well be the case that MD has it about right and the Gallup polls are outliers, one in each direction. Or maybe the OBL thing is actually working hugely for Kerry, except that one would expect to see evidence of a similar swing (above and beyond the usual tightening in the last week of a Presidential campaign) in other states as well. I don't think the evidence exists to support such a surge, either in the public polls or in the private whisperings of both campaigns.