Polling for Simmons is close with a large number of undecideds. Hard to tell. He surprised everyone by winning in 2000, so I think you have to give him the edge. It is a middle-of-the-road district for Ct.
Chris Shays has benefited from a solid moderate RINO base in the district. It will probably go for Kerry. If Bridgeport turns out in big numbers, and people don't split tickets, Shays could be in trouble. But I'd be surprised.
Simmons is in real danger. Shays will probably pull through, although polls suggest the truly awful Diane Ferrell (first selectwoman of ultraliberal Westport) is within striking distance.