This is oversimplified. If Bush takes Florida and Iowa, which is likely, then he wins if he takes any of the following (assuming all 2000 states stay Bush except OH and NH)
1) PN
2) OH
3) MI
4) WI
5) MN
6) NJ
7) 2 out of NH, NM and HI
"1) PN
2) OH
3) MI
4) WI
5) MN
6) NJ
7) 2 out of NH, NM and HI"
Not to be too pessemistic, but I can't imagine a realistic scenario wherein Bush could take NJ or HI so I would scratch those.
Powerline has some poll results from Iowa saying that Kerry has an 11 point lead in the 27% of the votes already cast and that they are tied for the remaining 73%. Something seems wrong to me about this. They aren't counting votes yet, right? Besides, I would think that they early casters would be more likely to be dems--the lunatic hatred factor being what it is.