I went to buycostumes.com, which is the site which compiles the numbers and has the track record going back to 1980. I can't find the numbers anymore, and I've been checking the site for over a week.
As of Friday, President Bush was 8% over Kerry. I was checking it all week and he had gone up 2%.
Hmmmmmmmmm
More than "slight lead".
They are sold out of the Bush masks, apparently the demand exceeded the supply -- another good sign.