Posted on 10/30/2004 5:20:56 PM PDT by Perdogg
DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report Indian Air Force sighted bin Laden a few days ago on Tibet-Laddakh region close to the North-Eastern corner of Pakistan bordering India and China. Indian forces went on red alert
US Homeland Security secretary Ridge announces terror alert will not be raised but extra vigilance advised – in wake of Bin Laden’s videotaped threat of new 9/11-style attacks
US intelligence analysts report al Jazeera aired only 5 minutes of 18-minute total length, which contained two additional references to Bush and family.
DEBKAfile Special Report
Osama bin Laden’s videotaped warning to the American people aired by al Jazeera Arabic TV Friday, October 29, was as lethal as any terrorist attack.
“Despite entering the fourth year after Sept. 11, Bush is still deceiving you and hiding the truth. Therefore, the reasons are still there to repeat what happened. Your security,” said the al Qaeda leader, “Is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands and it depends on your policy.”
Those words were crafted to drop a remote-controlled bomb on the US election 96 hours from the finish line. They were the al Qaeda leader’s first real admission that he was behind the 9/11 attacks, a reminder that three years later he was still at large and a warning that Americans were still at risk – all meant to connect in the American voter’s mind to the ongoing war in Iraq and the failure to turn up Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction.
Bin Laden hoped his words would slice into President George W. Bush’s slim lead and encompass his downfall. At the very least, he aimed to dominate the tone and direction of the US presidential election.
Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge tried to mute the damage by announcing that the national terrorist level would not be raised in the wake of the videotape although he did advise extra vigilance
Nothing on the tape released Friday gave away information on the speaker’s whereabouts. Although it was dropped in Islamabad a few hours earlier, at the gate of Al Jazeera’s Pakistan bureau chief, Pakistan was quick to deny the fugitive was hiding in that country. “He cannot be in the tribal areas because of the presence of so many troops,” said interior minister Aftab Khan Sherpao. In Afghanistan, the US military suggested he was somewhere near the Afghan-Pakistani border.
All the intelligence agencies involved in the hunt for the elusive bin Laden - American, Indian, Pakistani and Russian – are reported by DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources to have narrowed down his hiding places fairly closely. They are convinced that, after he gave orders for the tape’s release, he headed out to his winter hideout in the Himalayas or Little Pamir and will stay there until the spring thaw.
This is not the first time al Qaeda interfered in a Western election. On March 11, 2004, al Qaeda operatives carried out a series of bombings on Madrid trains that left 200 dead shortly before the vote. The pro-American Anzar government was defeated and the new administration hurriedly withdrew Spanish troops from Iraq.
Then came a surprising statement. Al Qaeda asserted in one of its taped publications that, rather than spill blood, it preferred to enter into dialogue with European nations - provided they met certain conditions such as disengaging from Washington’s policies.
No European government bought this attempt at manipulation. Our al Qaeda specialists predict that if Kerry is elected, its propagandists will try the same ploy on him too. When they are brushed off, the terrorists will go into action. But if Bush prevails, they will not bother with such delaying tactics before launching into anti-US violence.
The question of whether or not al Qaeda is still capable of carrying out a large-scale attack in America found no answer on the videotape. But bin Laden knows that whoever is elected to the White House on Tuesday, November 2, the new president will be bound to cut through all the political ifs and buts and seriously approach the daunting task of capturing and killing Osama bin Laden. It may come down to a race to catch him before his underlings carry out their orders to strike. The only way to hold their hand would be to make it known that their leader is caught or dead.
Bin Laden was actually spotted in the flesh just a few days ago - according to DEBKAfile’s counter terror sources. Between October 17 and October 19, an Indian air force reconnaissance plane picked him up in the Tibet-Laddakh region close to the North-Eastern corner of Pakistan bordering India and China. Additional surveillance aircraft were called in and identified the al Qaeda leader on the move with a 10-vehicle convoy of black Japanese minivans. Four of the vehicles turned up again on October 22 heading east towards the Chinese border. Our sources maintain that the rumored sightings of bin Laden on the Lingzi Thang Plain on the Tibetan border in June may have been true then but are now outdated. In any case, he was not at the time in Pakistani Waziristan or the Afghan-Pakistani border.
The agents hunting the al Qaeda leader are working on the premise that he has decided to wait out the winter months in one of two regions: Hunza province in the Northern Frontier tip of Indian Kashmir or Little Pamir, where fanatical Tajik tribes have never allowed any Kabul government - whether Taliban or led by Karzai - to secure a foothold. Little Pamir is wedged between Tajikistan
where Russian special forces taking part in the bin Laden dragnet are deployed and China.
Before launching the Sept.11 attacks, bin Laden and his deputy Ayman Zawahiri, prepared snug havens in the caverns that riddle the towering 5,000-8,000 mountain peaks.
In the 1970s, the Russians converted the Little Pamir cave warren into subterranean silos for nuclear missiles pointing towards China. But even the Russians found the cold and harsh conditions unendurable and by the mid-1980s the bases were abandoned.
Sunday, October 24, a senior FBI agent, briefed first in Pakistan, flew from Islamabad to New Delhi to meet Indian security bosses and examine the aerial shots of the bin Laden convoy.
Our intelligence sources report that, after the American agent studied the data and questioned the Indian intelligence officers who saw the terrorist chief leave his minivan several times, he relayed Washington’s request for the Indian government to put its security forces in the North Western region on red alert and round up troops for combing operations in the region before the snowfall.
New Delhi complied the next day and also stepped up its vigilance on the Kagil-Leh Highway and along the Tibetan border.
But before bin Laden disappeared in his mountain fastness, he not only had the videotape posted to al Jazeera, but left with his men precise instructions defining the political circumstances and timing for the next al Qaeda terrorist attack in the United States.
I think it was F-15s but the Indian numerical advantage was greatly in excess of 2-1.
his color didn't look too good either
I stand corrected, but the point remains. Thank you.
I agree. Bin Laden is a moron thinking the American people are pussies like the Europeans. It will probably help Bush. I hope it does.
With terrorscum Clorox (Camel spit)
"Ok, call me crazy, but has anyone else noticed how white Binny's clothes and turban are?"
Two things.
Firstly, why would he be wearing a white robe this time of the year in those high mountain regions? White will tend to reflect the incoming IR. You want to wear dark, preferatbly black so you get free heat from the sun.
Secondly, I think this report is just bull shit. How would the Indian pilots just happen to notice a small group of men in some high mountain area? And if they really did see a small group, how would they know it was Laden?
Also, is not this area known from the start of the Afgan war to be populated by mostly anti-Talaban tribes?
It just don't add up folks.
Then why do bedouins (sp) wear black in the desert in the summer?
IR can work both ways.
| 8 | “The agents hunting the al Qaeda leader are working on the premise that he has decided to wait out the winter months in one of two regions: Hunza province in the Northern Frontier tip of Indian Kashmir or Little Pamir...” |
First off, let me apologize for pinging you to a DEBKA thread, a source so disreputable that in November of 2001, they reported three divisions of Chinese PLA had crossed the border into Afghanistan to oppose American soldiers.
But even DEBKA can follow up where other more credible sources have gone before, and that may be the case this time. The sighting of Osama in the Ladakh region of northern Kashmir, near the Chinese border was discussed at length on the FR thread, "Indians Put Security Forces on Red Alert After Osama Bin Laden Sighting in Laddakh", that originated as a news story from the South Asia Tribune.
In both these articles, there was the claim that American intelligence agents flew to New Delhi to meet with their Indian counterparts for briefings. If this is true, someone in Washington is taking these reports seriously, and so should we, till we learn better.
THE MAPS...
The DEBKA article mentioned two additional areas (Hunza and Little Pamir) that they claim are of interest in the search for the al-Qa'ida leadership. They can be found on the map below. Little Pamir is located in the awesome and notorious Wakhan Corridor of Afghanistan. The Little Pamir is found in the upper center of the map. Hunza, a district of the Northern Areas of Pakistan (or Kashmir, depending on who's holding the rifle at the moment), is found in the center of the map, north of the strategically important city of Gilgit. Both of these sites are close enough to the Chinese border to make dogs nervous.
This DEBKA article correctly notes the really interesting strategic and intelligence history of the Little Pamir. Check out some of these Google results for "missile" and "little pamir". Note the altitudes of in the map below, they are in meters and only represent the height of passes, not the mountains. This is not a terrain to be taken lightly.
| multimap.com | | | The above map came from MultiMap.com. Click the logo on the left to visit the best site on the internet for accurate and detailed maps of the entire world. |
To orient yourself regionally, find Gilgit in the far north part of the map of Pakistan, below and note, too, Afghanistan's Wakhan Corridor immediately above that.
--Boot Hill
They keep saying here and there that bin Laden is in a
cave. Could he possibly be in the cave in Saudi Arabia
where Muhammad composed the Koran? What's the name of
the mountain, near Mecca isn't it?
If bin Laden could launch an actual attack just before the election, he would. Instead, thanks to G.W. Bush, the best he can muster is this cheesey video tape.I wish the Bush campaign was saying what you just said. Loud and clear. But the Bush campaign (KR) has decided to be "gentlemanly" about all these life-and-death issues.
Sunday 31 October 2004
Bin Laden 'safe with Afghan tribe'
KUWAIT CITY: Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is living in a safe place northeast of the Afghan capital under the protection of a tribe, Kuwait's Al Rai Al Aam newspaper quoted Islamic sources as saying yesterday.
Fugitive Taliban leader Mullah Omar is also living inside Afghanistan and has recently sent an envoy to three Gulf states, including Kuwait, to collect donations from Jihad (holy war) sympathisers, the sources said.
An unnamed person met Omar two weeks ago and also saw Bin Laden some two-and-a-half months ago and told the sources the Al Qaeda leader was in good spirits.
"Sheikh Abu Abdullah (Bin Laden) is in good health and high morale.
"He lives along with four people in a safe place with an Afghan tribe that provides him with all means of comfort and safety," the sources quoted the man as saying.
"Sheikh Osama lives in an area northeast of Kabul and closely follows the military actions of his followers," he added.
Bin Laden's number two Ayman Al Zawahiri also lives in Afghanistan but in an area far away from where the Al Qaeda leader is hiding, the sources said.
The two leaders exchange information and co-ordinate through well-trusted men.
Both the Taliban and Al Qaeda are currently "regrouping" in preparation to launch "qualitative" attacks against US forces in Afghanistan, the sources added.
However, US forces in Afghanistan said they believe Bin Laden is still roaming along the frontier between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
After three years hunting the elusive Al Qaeda chief in Afghanistan, US forces are still "not exactly sure" where he is, but have "firm confidence" they will catch him one day, said Major Scott Nelson, a spokesman for the US-led coalition.
Some 16,000 US troops dominate an 18,000-strong military coalition, tasked with capturing and killing Al Qaeda, Taliban and other extremists in Afghanistan since failing to arrest Bin Laden in late 2001.
The videotape aired on Al Jazeera TV on Friday night was the first featuring Bin Laden since September 10, 2003, when the same network aired a tape showing Bin Laden walking through rock-strewn hilly terrain with Al Zawahiri.
US intelligence analysts believe the latest tape is authentic and may have been recorded as early as last month.
US commanders had expressed confidence early this year of finally capturing Bin Laden, but since then they have been playing down his importance.
Hundreds of Al Qaeda and Taliban fugitives have found sanctuary and set up training camps in remote Pakistani tribal areas hugging the border, where hardline tribes support their Islamic extremism and hatred of the US.
http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=95456&Sn=WORL&IssueID=27225
I think this is very likely. I think the threat is serious, and we need a resolute President who can deal with it. (Hint: It's NOT Kerry)
We have a definite anti-Debka group here, who never want to discuss the information and analysis, they don't even bother to read it, they are too busy ranting against Debka.
But then, there are some of us, who actually read Debka and realize that their analysis is very good, and often their information is quite accurate, and is confirmed months later. Also, some of the info that doesn't get confirmed, it doesn't get debunked, so it could still be true, but for various reasons it's not picked up by the MSM or deliberately not publicized further for security reasons. They may not be 100% accurate, but that is the nature of intelligence.
When I found out about Debka, I was just interested, with an open mind, and found them worth reading.
Surveillance airplanes/drones are not normally armed.
Surveillance airplanes/drones are not normally armed.
2001 > http://www.freemasonrywatch.org/bombproof.html
Bin Laden at ex-Soviet, high tech, bomb proof bunker complex near ...
Seems DEBKA reported on Bin Laden and this area before. Could be BS or could be that the Al Quaeda are creatures of habit and like to go back to places - WTC, LAX etc.
Debka = National Enquirer
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