Posted on 10/30/2004 4:11:59 PM PDT by Timeout
BUSH HAS THE MO [KJL]
That's the GOP message tonight as they work to the ends of the continental U.S. and beyond--to Honolulu!! Bush/Cheney is confident this Saturday night. They believe these last days will prove they have made significant inroads throughout the U.S. at the grassroots level. Starting yesterday, 150,000 volunteers are working in the tightest states, contacting 18 million voters to get out the vote for W. They say they’ve registered 3.4 million more Republicans since the last presidential election. That those GOTVers are volunteers, too, they say is significant.
In Florida alone—on Friday alone—GOP officials say volunteers knocked on 170,000 doors and made 200,000 calls. Though E Day they expect those numbers to hit 17,000 volunteers will 800,000 doors and 1.2 million calls. Just in Florida, a state where they’ve been confident for more than a few days now. But it’s not lackluster in Ohio either. GOP officials are saying 14,000 volunteers will knock on 400,000 doors and make 990,000 calls.
[Posted at 06:35 PM EDT]
See also "The Kerry Spot" at NRO for more inside info from the Bush team: http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp
One more thought to get you bucked up.
I've been a lot more confident since Thursday, when I went to the LA Times electoral calculator and came up with this:
Bush will take Florida.
After that all he needs is...
Iowa
New Mexico
Hawaii
That's it...270 electoral votes. And he's up in all those states.
No Ohio, no Wisconsin, no Minnesota...etc. And I think he WILL take those. I'm simply saying that those 3 states are all he NEEDS. Pretty grim picture for Kerry.
I'm concerned about Wisconsin.
Bad news: Massive, massive vote fraud and potential vote fraud.
More bad news: It's happening in slow motion right out in the open--especially in Milwaukee, in Racine and Madison the DA's seem to actually care about the law. But what we see is probably the tip of the iceberg, because so many lefty 527s are operating in the state.
Good news: If it's happening in the open, Karl Rove's lawyers know exactly what's going on, and there will be napalm on a lot of targets on Novemeber 3rd.
At NRO, Geraghty said that Kerry was trailing Gore's pace with Filipinos in Hawaii by 15%, and that the Gore rally had about 1000. It fizzled. I can't believe I'm now going to predict Bush picks up Hawaii, too.
Saturday afternoon Fox was talking up their latest poll numbers which had Bush up only 2 over Kerry, 47-45. Osama's video caused Bush to lose 3 points? I think they said half of the polling was done before the tape was released.
***This time around....I feel my life depends on it.***
And IMHO, that's exactly what people are going to be thinking, what's foremost in their thoughts, when they walk into the voting booth. The might walk in intending to vote for Kerry or Nader, but at the very last minute (God willing) they'll think back to 9/11 and UBL and all that, and ultimately vote for the man who will keep them safe--Pres. Bush.
But not even 10,000 lawyers can steal an election if it's not close. GOTV!
HMMMM wonder if i should call my ex~husband? I truly dont believe the man ever voted once the 14 yrs we were married. so i guess i wont call(:
These are awesome results, and you're right, they're not talking about them!
HOW can the MSM say the Pres. is behind when he's getting more of the black vote, and more of the woman's vote than he got last time???
>>I think they said half of the polling was done before the tape was released.<<
Actually I think the new Fox poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday.
Before the Pentagon press conference and the OBL tape.
IF the OBL tape has an effect it will be positive one for Bush.
Actually, I beleive none of their polling was done after the osama video.
No, I think that they were recognizing that Reagan had gained an edge, though they didn't realize how big he would win.
>Does anyone know if the media called the polls "close" the year that Reagan swept every state but one?<
Yes they did! I use this as one of the ways I calm down my friends who freak out about polls going up or down. I distinctly remember watching the news (one of the big three) the evening before and hearing report after report about how the election was right down to the wire and pundits saying this one was too close to call.
As a general rule I add 2.5% to the Republicans in polling and subtract a similar amount from the Dems. With the exception of 2000, this rule of thumb seems to serve me well in terms of 'interpreting' poll numbers.
No. Losing doesn't motivate people, winning does.
Bush support is not beneath the radar, it's on the radar, but the media has camoflauged it to make the election a juicier story.
I think the 'margin for error,' which is consistently read as a positive, actually hides a consistent Bush 5 or 6 point lead.
Bush has consistently been ahead in most of the polls nationally. It's always within the margin for error, but that margin works both ways. So if polls show Bush ahead 3 points with a margin for error of 3 points, then the media relates it as a statistical tie.
That's only meaningful if you consistently read the margin for error as a negative. It also runs positive. So a Bush 3 point lead with a margin for error of 3 is just as likely a Bush lead of 6 as it is a statistical tie.
Note also numerous polls that have shown, give or take, Bush leading by a margin of about 5 poiunts. They toss that bone out there on occasion.
I think Dubya has about a 5 point lead nationally and will win with a comfy 325 EVs, give or take 25 EVs.
If you do get a call on Eday ask the caller where she is calling from. If it's a local volunteer they will tell you. If it's a company out of India they probably won't.
It's his Dukakis side coming out. Dukakis let his lead deflate because he couldn't believe anyone would be so dumb as to not vote for him. He KNEW he was the superior candidate, and all us morons would eventually figure that out. (Ironically this is how Bush 41 lost to Clinton; he couldn't believe anyone would vote for a draft dodger over a war hero.)
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