So TIPP and (LOL) Zogby show movement to Kerry but no one else does
Is TIPP partisan?
I think Tipp is accurate, but a lagger. I've been wondering all week if it's higher numbers were LAST week's fallout or this week's leaders. It appears to be the former. Tipp will get it right in time for the election.
All the tracking polls are like sine waves. They go up and down hovering over a given point (one the average 2). The 4 tracking polls have taken turns going up and down, but one thing doesn't change. They show Bush ahead by 2 on the average.
The good thing for Bush is that all of these polls have methodologies which assume more Dems than GOP, like 2000. The polls that do not have pre-determined weightings favoring Dems have Bush ahead by 5 (Gallup, Battleground, Time)