I asked my Magic 8 Ball if Bush would win and got this reply:
Posted on 10/29/2004 11:30:56 AM PDT by IDontLikeToPayTaxes
Hey folks, this is my first vanity in 6 years of Freeping. So, sorry in advance for the vanity. :)
Anyway, I've been watching the Dow Jones Average since Labor Day. Why? Because the old theory is that if, on Election Day, the Dow is higher than it was on Labor Day, the incumbant will win. And vice-versa. This theory has been approx. 90% accurate for the past 100 years, or something like that.
Anyway, the Dow was around 10,250 on Labor Day, and it's at 10,000 today, with one trading day left before Tuesday.
I've been worrying about this since September. Do any Freeper experts out there have any input ???
There's a 10% margin for error in that. I'm confident that we reside in that 10%.
I predict that the person receiving the most electoral college votes will win. More accurate than the Dow, hemlines, Zogby or even the Washington Redskins.
True. There are SO MANY of these election theories (whoever wins Ohio....whoever wins Missouri, etc), that's it's hard to sort them out.
And due to Babe Ruth's curse, it is impossible for the Red Sox to ever win the World Series.
THAT theory has proven correct in EVERY election, without fail. I think you're on to something...
Hell, look at MLB history... no man whose hometown baseball team won the World Series in an election year has ever gone on to win the presidency.
It is pretty easy to come with these sort of things, like the Redskins/Lakers "predictors".
Not this shit again.
And no incumbent Republican President can ever win an off-year congressional election (2002).
Oh, believe me, I've taken that into consideration, too!!!
Perhaps this election will set all sorts of records??
Actually, Stock Traders Almanac provides a
log in which you record the Dow on the day AFTER
the last convention and then on the day before
election day. I will check this over the weekend
and post as appropriate.
BTW, prior to 2000, there had never been a loss on the
DJIA in the final 7 months of a prez election yr. That's from June 1-Dec 31 of the election yr. That 'indicator'
goes back to 1900 or something. This also according
to Hirsch.
MV
Well, your sample size is too small. Add in Democrats and Clinton did it in 1998.
The stats said the Red Sox wouldn't come back against the Yankees.
This is really really weird. I can't shake the "feeling" THAT BUSH WILL SCORE A MAJOR LANDSLIDE and only the constant drip drip drip of acid from the MSM makes this "invisible".
...On the other hand...
good grief! Never been so confused before an election. I suspect, therefore, that someone, somewhere, has a major plan to "take advantage" of "confusion". (So I just moved to cash.) Let them "whipsaw" away, I'm ready.
I'll stick with the Weekly Reader poll. They've picked the last 11 out of 12 winners since 1956 and this year, they picked Bush.
Root for the Washington Redskins on Sunday. The incumbent wins whenn the Redskins win the Sunday before the election.
So there, another pie in the sky theory for you.
Any good statistics professor will tell you: correlation does not mean coordination.
I asked my Magic 8 Ball if Bush would win and got this reply:
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