Election Predictions!!!!

Weekly Standard ^ | 10/28/04 | Various

[swilhelm73]

Election Predictions!!!! Kristol, Barnes, Last, Matus, Tell, Labash, and the rest go out on a limb for Bush, Kerry, and Congress. by Weekly Standard Staff 10/28/2004 3:00:00 PM Increase Font Size Printer-Friendly

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William Kristol

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 232 (R), 202 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Tom Daschle loses to John Thune in South Dakota.

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Stephen Hayes

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 48% Bush Electoral College: 291 Kerry - 247 Bush

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 230 (R), 205 (D)

Dark horse: Wisconsin, long regarded as the clean government state, will be so overwhelmed with voter fraud that pundits in 2008 will speak of avoiding the "Wisconsin problem." Bonus prediction: Packers beat Redskins 38-17.

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Fred Barnes

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 306 Bush - 232 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 201 (D)

Dark horse: Dalton Tanonaka (R) upsets Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) in Hawaii.

Bonus dark horse: Referenda to ban same-sex marriage win in all 11 states.

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Victorino Matus

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 49% Kerry - 47% Bush Electoral College: Kerry 285 - Bush 253

Senate: 49 (R), 50 (D), 1 (I)

House: 226 (R), 206 (D), 3 (I)

Dark horse: An upset is brewing in the Colorado Senate race--Pete Coors makes a comeback . . . and (t)wins!

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Jonathan V. Last

Bush wins Popular Vote: 54% Bush - 46% Kerry Electoral College: 293 Bush - 245 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Alan Keyes fails to garner even 35% of the vote in Illinois, dooming the state Republican party for years. And despite losing the popular vote decisively, Kerry challenges the election based on results in a few key states.

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Matt Labash

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 49% Bush Electoral College: 295 Kerry - 243 Bush

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 234 (R) - 201 (D)

Dark horse: Barack Obama suffers devastating election-day backlash. Alan Keyes loses by a mere 47 points.

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Terry Eastland

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 296 Bush -242 Kerry

Senate: 543 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 230 (R), 205 (D)

Dark horse: Kerry takes Florida and Pennsylvania, but the Midwest goes for Bush as values voters decide the election--at least on the initial count. Kerry goes to court in states where the margin of victory in each is less than 537 votes: Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Chaos ensues as lawyers take over, but only Minnesota shifts to Kerry, making the final tally 286-252.

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David Tell

Bush wins Popular Vote: Bush 48.8% - Kerry 49.4% Electoral College count known on 11/3/04: Bush 232 - Kerry 231 Electoral College on 1/20/05: Bush 270 - Kerry 267

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 231 (R), 203 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Some combination of (A) logistical difficulties produced by absentee, provisional, and mail-in ballots; (B) statutorily required recounts; (C) partisan litigation; and (D) Hawaii's time zone will delay the final Electoral College count for at least a week. A "faithless elector" in West Virginia robs Bush of one vote to which he would otherwise be entitled. Democrats in Congress begin a major push to abolish the Electoral College. Defeated for reelection, former Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota is no longer around to stop them.

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Katherine Mangu-Ward

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 50% Kerry Electoral College: 269 Bush - 269 Kerry--Republican House decides for Bush

Senate: 51 (D), 49 (R)

House: Republicans retain control (who knows by how much) but I predict an upset in Vermont, knocking Bernie Sanders out of his seat and finally eliminating the irritating "1" in the "Other" category in all these tallies

Dark horse: Hillary Clinton for VP. Obviously, this is a very dark horse. But here's how it's possible: When the House decides the outcome for president (as it will in the event of an Electoral College tie), the Senate chooses the vice president. But it's not the current Senate that decides, it's the newly elected Senate. I predict that Democrats take control of the Senate, ditch Edwards, and install Hillary, thus giving her a fantastic (if unorthodox) launch pad for her 2008 presidential campaign.

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Richard Starr

Bush wins Popular Vote: 49.9% Bush - 49.1% Kerry Electoral College: 283 Bush - 255 Kerry

Senate: 50 (R), 50 (D)

House: 228 (R) 206 (D)

Dark horse: Kerry calls off the lawyers and doesn't litigate the outcome.

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David Skinner

Bush wins Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 271 Bush - 267 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: In District 8 of Virginia, Jim Moran will lose. I've seen no polls on this, and Moran has had more money to spend than his challenger, Lisa Marie Cheney, an unknown whose only TV ad is mediocre. But here's the thing: Every local voter I know who has an opinion of Moran has a negative opinion of him.

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Matthew Continetti

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: Bush 281 - Kerry 257.

Senate: 51 (R), 48 (D), 1 (I)

House: 233 (R), 202 (D)

Dark horse: Swift Boat Veteran for Truth John O'Neill emerges as frontrunner for the 2008 Republican nomination.

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Rachel DiCarlo

Bush wins Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 48% Kerry Electoral College: 298 Bush - 240 Kerry

Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 228 (R), 206 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Thune pulls it off in South Dakota.

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Michael Goldfarb

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 297 Bush - 241 Kerry

Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 235 (R), 200 (D)

Dark horse: Bush will win my home state, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

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Duncan Currie

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 286 Bush -252 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 45 (D), 1 (I)

House: 229 (R), 207 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: John Thune takes down Tom Daschle in South Dakota. Oh, and whatever happens on election night, Terry McAuliffe will spin it as "a very good night for Democrats" (or something like that).

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[swilhelm73]

I submitted this a few moments ago and got an error message.

I've see that error a few times already, but the article goes through anyway.

Well, this time it did not. I submitted, got the error, and did a search to find the article - not there.

I notice FR has been a bit flaky of late overall.

[The G Man]

Bush: 53% (316 EVs), Kerry: 46% (222 EVs)

[Jeff Head]

I'm calling it Bush 320, Kerry 218

[fortheDeclaration]

I think Kristel is got this one right.

I also think Daschle goes down.

[alwaysconservative]

I'm bookmarking this post for review on November 3. It will be interesting.

[freestyle]

Bush 404
Kerry 134
(yeah... I took California for Bush!!)



Fall back:
Bush 349
Kerry 189

[zarf]

whatever happens on election night, Terry McAuliffe will spin it as "a very good night for Democrats" (or something like that).

LOL! Best prediction of the bunch.

[native texan]

Early voting exit polls for Texas = Bush up 75%

[native texan]

Early voting exit polls for Texas = Bush up 75%

[hellinahandcart]

I can confidently predict that I will have an ulcer by Tuesday night.

[Cold Heat]

I have Bush by five and the electoral edge, but that is now. We have a few more hours of BS to go.

[Jeff Head]

I'm predicting 320 to 218...but hoping Bush gets 350 to 400.

So I am right with you!

[Tuxedo]

I'll also go on record and say Bush 348 Kerry 190, Bush takes PA, MI, FL, OH, NM, MN, IA, WI, along with the usual suspects. Senate: R's pickup LA (outright), FL, SC, NC, GA, and SD and we lose IL and AK. We hold OK and CO. And it is very close in AR, but Lincoln prevails. So, that gives us +4 for a total of 55. House goes to 239 R, 196 D.

[Cold Heat]

I took my son and we voted today. I feel a bit better!

[aBootes]

I'll take Bush 51%, Kerry 47%; 300 electoral votes for Bush.

[Tuxedo]

Oh, and popular vote 54% Bush, 44% Kerry, 1% Nader. Boxer in a squeaker when it appears Kerry is DOA early enough in the evening.

[TNCMAXQ]

Nothing from Mort Kondracke? He is pretty fair minded, i would say.

I'm going to guess the Beltway Boys on Sat. will show a Bush victory. They had him at 283 last week and I think that was without Ohio.