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Mark Steyn: Prediction City [NR 11/8/04 issue]
National Review Online ^ | November 8, 2004 issue | Mark Steyn

Posted on 10/28/2004 9:17:38 AM PDT by Constitution Day

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To: gridlock
Pre-9/11 poll models don't make sense.

Not only they don't make sense, but they're made by the same ex-radical campus mob that fills news rooms and editorial boards of the mainstream/lefty liberal media.

"In the name of higher goal" (to oust W) these guys don't hesitate to lie and falsify in press and on the screen... why would they abstain of doing that in polls?

The best illustration is Australia's recent election. The situation there resembled the American very closely: conservative incumbent John Howard, a staunch US ally in war against terrorism; and pinkish Labor candidate Mark Latham, with a hand of traditional peacenik and femmunist candies to lure the electorate.

The campaign was a total love affair between the media and the Laborite. I cannot recall a poll mentioned in the press under any headline except "Race too close to tell" or "Labor gains public approval" or "Candidates are neck-in-neck, with slight advantage for Latham".

And then John Howard not only won on wide margin but took over several "safe Labor seats" in the lower house, and obtained control over the Senate.

Possible explanations:

a) pure coincident;

b) those in the polling companies have no clue what they are doing;

c) they know what they are doing quite well, but it's not what you think they are doing.

The choice is yours.

41 posted on 10/28/2004 7:15:53 PM PDT by Neophyte (Nazists, Communists, Islamists... what the heck is the difference?)
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To: swilhelm73

Yes, they do! I was glad to see that in my mailbox.


42 posted on 10/28/2004 7:36:55 PM PDT by Constitution Day (I don't know where the sunbeams end and the starlights begin, it's all a mystery...)
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To: Constitution Day

I think that Bush hatred is overstated (a minority making a lot of noise.

That will be the story of the election. The media, living in their bubble, didn't see what was really going on.


43 posted on 10/28/2004 7:41:35 PM PDT by True_wesT
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To: LexBaird

Chad Diviner runs a Bore-Water Drilling company in outback Queensland.


44 posted on 10/28/2004 7:46:24 PM PDT by Bandaneira (The Third Temple/House for All Nations/World Peace Centre...Coming Soon...)
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To: Constitution Day
Writer Steyn predicts "...I think he'll win, and win convincingly...".

I agree, and in fact I offer two predictions of my own.

1. Many people who vote for John Kerry will feel privately relieved when decisive President George W. Bush is reelected decisively.

2. About a year from now, a book with a title something like Collusion: How the New York Times and CBS collaborated with John Kerry and the Democrats will (with delicious irony) be on the New York Times Best Seller list.

45 posted on 10/28/2004 8:04:57 PM PDT by Seaplaner (Never give in. Never give in. Never...except to convictions of honour and good sense. W. Churchill)
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To: Pokey78
How many New Jersey commuters to Manhattan feel reassured by Kerry on terrorism? A sliver of "9/11 Democrats" declined to support their party in the 2002 elections. Will there be more or fewer this time?

Judging from the folks I've talked to, the answer is: MANY more.

46 posted on 10/28/2004 8:07:15 PM PDT by irv
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To: Steve_Seattle
think Bush would have won easy if he hadn't given tax cuts to people earning over $200,000

Who the heck do you think pays most of the taxes, Steve?

A tax cut that didn't include everyone, especially those making over 200K wouldn't have been effective to lift our economy. It would have been a worthless and unwise move. It might have looked like a nice move to those in the lower brackets, but anyone who really knows and is honest can tell you that tax cuts need to be deep to really spur the economy (even deeper than now) and when they are deep, even federal revenue is increased as more workers and corporations are paying taxes, even though at lower rates.

Increased taxes causes malaise, Steve. And that's the truth. Besides, high taxes are unfair to anyone who works for a living, PERIOD.

What part of that can't liberals understand?

47 posted on 10/28/2004 8:21:41 PM PDT by Bullish
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To: Pokey78

Thanks for the ping.


48 posted on 10/28/2004 8:24:54 PM PDT by GOPJ (If 260 National Guard vets said Bush was an incompetent liar, the MSM would cover it. BiGTime)
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To: gridlock
I think Mark Steyn is right when he says Pre-9/11 poll models don't make sense. I expect a much bigger win by Bush than the polls currently indicate.

We were all saying the exact same thing in 2000. The only question then was the extent of GWB's landslide over Gore. I'll believe the polls now until they are proven otherwise.

49 posted on 10/28/2004 8:32:42 PM PDT by Plutarch (..and because Red beats Blue in any Civil War)
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To: Neophyte

Yours is a good take on it.


50 posted on 10/28/2004 8:33:33 PM PDT by Bullish
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To: Constitution Day
In 2000, Al Gore lost because he had no appeal to rural white men, who, despite his claims to be a Tennessee farmer, reacted to him as if he were some effete ninny from Massachusetts.

Steyn slips the daggers in so effortlessly and without notice. Oh, I love him.

51 posted on 10/28/2004 9:10:58 PM PDT by Ruth A.
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To: Two Thirds Vote Aye; TXBubba

More Steyn Ping


52 posted on 10/28/2004 10:57:02 PM PDT by beaversmom (Michael Medved has the Greatest radio show on GOD's Green Earth)
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To: Constitution Day
I'll jump on you! But more along the lines of the Bosox. Thanks for posting this! (in full, BTW)
53 posted on 10/29/2004 5:14:32 AM PDT by 1john2 3and4
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To: 1john2 3and4
You're welcome!
After I read it in the print version, I just had to.

BTTT!

54 posted on 10/29/2004 5:42:25 AM PDT by Constitution Day (I don't know where the sunbeams end and the starlights begin, it's all a mystery...)
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To: LouisWu
Algore was the genuine article. Heck, he carried his home state, DC!
55 posted on 10/29/2004 9:03:43 AM PDT by The Great Yazoo (JFK: He's a real nowhere man, Sitting in his nowhereland, Making all his nowhere plans, For nobody)
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To: Junior_G
Liberalism doesn't know how to make their socialist vision of utopia a reality; but they do know that they have to destroy the present society before they can start a new one.

Socialists gave up on their utopian vision 30 or 40 years ago. For them, destruction has become an end-in-itself.

56 posted on 10/29/2004 7:25:35 PM PDT by mrustow ("And when Moses saw the golden calf, he shouted out to the heavens, 'Jesus, Mary, and Joseph!'")
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To: Steve_Seattle
I think Bush would have won easy if he hadn't given tax cuts to people earning over $200,000


Tax cuts should always be across the board. In fact I support a flat tax, every one pays the same amount. This idea that it is only "fair" that the "rich" pay more only complicates our tax laws.

Taxes should be for only one purpose, raise money to run the governemt, not to help or punish individuals.

57 posted on 10/31/2004 5:52:20 AM PST by CIB-173RDABN
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To: Junior_G
I don't know if you are or not, but I am also worried. There is a hysterical mob mentality developing on the left that makes me wonder what this country is going to be like 5 or 10 years down the road. People who are absolute charlatans----and obviously so----are now the darlings of a party that has simply no standards, other than the requirement that one must have no traditional morals to speak of.


I am not worried. What we are witnessing is a rare event, the death of a polictical party. The Democrat Party has been taken over by those on the extreme left, and while they are still numerous, they do not represent the view of middle America. Each day, life long Democrats are leaving the party and joining the Republicans.

At some point, the Democrats will go the way of the Whigs, and the Republican party will split. The liberal Democrats will keep the old Republican party while those that are more conservative will create a new party.

58 posted on 10/31/2004 5:58:45 AM PST by CIB-173RDABN
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To: gridlock

I listened to yesterday's (Sunday) BBC World Service in Chinese and one thing strikes me. A Chinese-American radio show host based in New York told the BBC that he noticed a serious leaning to the Republicans and Bush when compared to 4 years ago and more people plan to vote Bush than Kerry. I think he was talking about Asian-Americans (which never voted majority Republican since the end of the Cold War) and in particular, the Chinatown Chinese-Americans. And co-incidentially, the People's Republic of China in Beijing is also telling them to vote Bush!

As these Chinese comprise around 10% of blue state voting public (you know, the big Chinatown Chinese concentrate in states like New York, New Jersey (due to NYC), California (San Francisco and LA), will we actually see the big blue states fall to Bush? ;-)


59 posted on 11/01/2004 12:25:36 AM PST by NZerFromHK (Controversially right-wing by NZ standards: unashamedly pro-conservative-America)
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To: Steve_Seattle

Had Bush not passed the tax break for everyone, especially those who pay the most, we wouldn't be gaining substantial numbers of jobs right now and Bush would have certainly lost the election because of higher unemployment like his father did.


60 posted on 11/01/2004 2:03:14 AM PST by DB (©)
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