THIS isn't cutting it.
Posted on 10/28/2004 4:41:20 AM PDT by Perdogg
WASHINGTON -- Pollster John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for president. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.
That conclusion would be a surprise for frantically nervous Republicans and cautiously upbeat Democrats entering the campaign's final days. In fact, nobody, including Zogby and all the other polltakers, can be sure who will win this election. Yet, it is clear that President Bush's strategists have succeeded in solidifying his base to a degree that makes it much harder to defeat him next Tuesday.
The long, tortuous presidential contest has come down to who the "security mom" thinks can best protect her family against terrorism. Based on current polling data, Bush has won that argument in the face of Sen. Kerry's relentless attacks. That explains why the Democratic nominee this week was not talking about health care or other standby issues of his party, but was trying to pierce Bush's security shield by harping on the disappearance of munitions in Iraq.
The difficulty that Kerry now encounters has been shrouded by misleading overnight tracking from last weekend, showing a Democratic surge that is common in Friday-through-Sunday polling. Otherwise, Kerry is in trouble. When Zogby had second thoughts Monday, he found Bush with a national lead of three percentage points and an undecided vote of only 2.7 percent.
The data shows the undecided voters in Bush's base are resolving their misgivings about the president. Zogby's subgroups in the Republican base -- such as investors, military and married couples -- are returning to Bush.
Zogby shows Kerry's advantage among women is only three percentage points, exactly the same margin reflected in the nightly tracking by Republican pollster Ed Goeas. The Goeas poll shows a 13-percentage point Bush advantage among men. Goeas's poll has white men favoring Bush over Kerry, 58 percent to 35 percent. Remarkably, the count among white married women is not far behind: 53 percent for Bush, 42 percent for Kerry. The problem for the Democrats is Bush's continued large lead over Kerry concerning which candidate voters prefer to fight terrorism.
If these numbers hold up, the campaign strategy of Bush political adviser Karl Rove will be vindicated. While Kerry's strategy seems to have a thousand fathers, no presidential campaign in my experience has been so completely in the hands of one man as Bush's. Amid much private criticism in GOP ranks, Rove has concentrated on mobilizing the base behind Bush as the anti-terror candidate rather than making conventional overtures to undecided centrists.
With his base secure this week, the Bush strategy did turn to Democratic voters -- not with the usual leftward turn but appealing to hard-liners who have trouble accepting Kerry leading the war against terror. Campaigning in Wisconsin Tuesday, Bush invoked the memory of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman and John F. Kennedy for their "resolve in times of war and in hours of crisis" -- drawing an unfavorable comparison with Kerry. Bush is after the security moms, Republican or Democrat.
On the same day, the Kerry campaign threw out previous plans and made the candidate's centerpiece a New York Times report of 380 tons of explosives found missing from Iraq. Although NBC embedded reporters said the explosives were gone when U.S. troops arrived in March 2003, Kerry insisted for two days that this was another example of Bush's inadequacy in waging the war on terror. Whether such a complex issue appeals to security moms is another matter.
A lot can happen in the next few days. In 2000, Zogby had Bush three percentage points ahead at this stage, but Al Gore seized the lead because of the attack on Social Security privatization and the revelation of Bush's drunk driving case.
Kerry needs what he has been unable to accomplish so far: a direct hit on Bush's anti-terrorism credentials. It is hard to imagine a Democratic victory without removing those security moms from under Bush's anti-terrorism banner.
©2004 Creators Syndicate, Inc.
When all else fails, turn to Mom for help.
THIS isn't cutting it.
This man at work is voting for Kerry and his wife is voting for Bush. I asked him why he wants to vote for a man who wants to increase taxes.....he said "I don't make over $200,000 a year.
Ack, that drives me crazy. You should ask him if one day he would like to make $200,000. Where's the motivation to make more money, Dems? Those who pay more taxes spend less money to help the economy grow (stupid #&^%$@ people). Sorry, I'm ranting....
As a Security Mom, I'm literally having nightmares about sKerry becoming President because I KNOW he can't protect my family and my country.
I don't think you can credit security 100% here. The fact is that women have realized the career track sucks, and more and more are staying home to raise the kids and also to teach their kids rather than sending them to crappy gub'mint schools. 9/11 certainly accelerated some of the issues, but they were already in the works, methinks.
This married, self-employed litle old lady agrees with you 100% It would be more than 100%, but I am no longer a liberal.
Thank you! ;)
Zogby flip-flops on his Kerry win prediction!
"On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women."
I recall someone looking at kerry's website for "the plan". It talked about using Clinton's tax plan. As I recall, anything over $110k would have a tax increase.
Kerry's not a flip-flopper- he's a liar.
Tell that man who doesn't make 200,000 a year if he thinks the Rich are so good hearted that they won't pass the Kerry tax hike down to them?
If a small business owner is taxed an additional 10% guess who PAYS it?? YOU THE CONSUMER!
This is TRICKLE DOWN TAX HIKES in action!
When the rich pay more taxes you are counting on the goodness of their heart NOT to pass it down to you.
If the rich really thought they should pay more in taxes, they'd do so voluntarily. You don't see E'fn and his money bags momma paying extra taxes voluntarily. Clinton never paid extra taxes...IF FORCED to they will make sure you take the hit before they do.
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